Cyclone Arnab and the Andhra coast

Landfall by very severe Cyclone Arnab began early on 28 October 2026 along the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts, south of Yanam. At 6:30 am IST on 28 October, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) centred Arnab over the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts south of Yanam, in a bulletin issued at 7:30 am IST, with winds of 115 to 125 kilometres per hour gusting to 140 kilometres per hour. The rear eyewall was expected to move inland within an hour, so the crossing was under way rather than complete. Yanam is a small coastal enclave of Puducherry on the Godavari delta, putting two administrations on the same stretch of coast.

Arnab is the first named tropical cyclone of the post-monsoon season over the Bay of Bengal in 2026. That timing matters: the sea is still warm, the air is humid, and a late-October storm can carry a large amount of rain even as its winds ease after landfall. The danger was never only the wind at the coast. It was the combination of wind, surge and rain, and the way the rain would keep travelling inland after the centre crossed the shore.

What the IMD forecast said

At 17:30 IST on 27 October, the IMD located Arnab about 90 kilometres south-east of Kakinada and 170 kilometres south-south-west of Visakhapatnam, moving west-north-west at about 18 kilometres per hour. The storm had already begun to interact with the coast: its outer bands were reaching land while the centre was still offshore, a pattern that often brings rain and gusty winds hours before the main landfall.

For landfall itself, IMD forecasts differed slightly between bulletins. The lowest range put sustained winds at 115 to 125 kilometres per hour, gusting to 140 kilometres per hour; other bulletins forecast higher winds. Following the rule used throughout this site's reporting, this article uses the lower figures: at least 115 kilometres per hour sustained, with gusts of at least 140 kilometres per hour. That matches the 6:30 am IST position on 28 October. A gust at that speed can bring down trees, hoardings and power lines, damage roofs and make travel on exposed roads and bridges dangerous.

The IMD also forecast a storm surge of at least one metre along the coast, with higher water near East Godavari and Yanam, and isolated extremely heavy rainfall over coastal Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha on 27 and 28 October. Inland, the rain threat extended to isolated heavy to very heavy rain in eastern Telangana and isolated extremely heavy rain in southern Chhattisgarh on 28 October. A red-level cyclone warning was in force for coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha.

Why the surge and the rain matter as much as the wind

Wind speed is the number most people remember, but in Bay of Bengal cyclones the water often causes the greater harm. A storm surge is a rise in sea level pushed ashore by the storm's winds and low pressure. Even a surge of a metre can flood low-lying coastal land, especially with high tide, and can cut roads people would use to leave or to reach help. Kakinada and Yanam faced the higher surge risk.

Rain is the second, longer danger. A cyclone weakens quickly once it moves over land, because it loses the warm sea that feeds it — but its rain bands can keep producing extremely heavy falls for a day or more, and rivers and drains can fill after the wind has dropped. That is why warnings extended into Telangana and Chhattisgarh, and why people inland were advised to watch for waterlogging and localised flooding even though the centre would not pass over them.

What to do before, during and after a cyclone landfall

The guidance below is general official-style safety advice. It does not replace a local order: if district authorities or the state disaster management authority tell people in a particular area to move to a shelter, that instruction takes priority.

  • Before landfall: charge phones and torches, keep drinking water, medicines and important documents in one bag, and know the nearest shelter and the highest ground on your route. Secure loose items outside that wind can turn into debris, and avoid coastal roads once warnings are in force.
  • Stay away from the sea: fishermen were advised not to go into the Bay of Bengal during the warning period, and people were advised to stay away from beaches, harbours and low-lying coastal areas until the all-clear. A receding sea or a sudden calm does not mean the storm has passed.
  • During the storm: stay indoors, away from windows and doors, and avoid using lifts. Do not shelter under trees, hoardings or weak structures, and do not cross flooded roads — a small depth of fast-moving water can sweep a person or a vehicle away.
  • After the centre passes: wait for the official all-clear before going outside. Watch for fallen power lines, damaged buildings and flooded underpasses, and report them to local authorities rather than handling them. Boil or treat water if supplies are disrupted, and check on neighbours who may need help, without entering unsafe buildings.
  • Information: follow IMD bulletins and state disaster management updates, not forwarded messages. Landfall timing and intensity forecasts change as new observations arrive, and the latest bulletin replaces earlier ones. For a different coastal hazard, see our tsunami safety guide.

How a Bay of Bengal cyclone forms and weakens

A tropical cyclone is a rotating system of thunderstorms fed by warm sea water and humid air. Over the Bay of Bengal, the post-monsoon months are a known season for such storms, because the sea remains warm after the summer monsoon and the winds aloft allow a disturbance to organise. As the system strengthens, its winds tighten around a centre and its rain bands spread outwards — which is why coastal districts can see rain and gusts long before landfall.

Once the centre crosses the coast, the storm loses its energy source and weakens, often rapidly. That weakening can be misleading: a storm described as "weakening" is still capable of extremely heavy rain, strong gusts and flooding, and its remnants can travel hundreds of kilometres inland. Arnab's forecast followed that pattern, as did Storm Boelo in the northern UK.

India's cyclone warning system, run by the IMD, issues colour-coded warnings and track forecasts updated as the storm moves. A red warning, as issued for coastal Andhra Pradesh, signals that action is needed: people in the warned areas should follow official instructions and avoid non-essential travel.

What our records show, and what they miss

Our records show the official forecast track, the warning level and the areas placed under alert for Arnab, and the pattern of a very severe cyclone approaching a densely settled delta coast. What they miss is the ground truth that only arrives after landfall: how high the surge actually reached, how much rain fell in each district, and what damage the wind caused to homes, power lines and crops. Forecast ranges differ between bulletins, and this article has used the lower figures where they disagreed.

Records also miss the local detail that matters most after a storm — which roads are open, which shelters still have space, and which villages are cut off. Those answers come from district administrations and on-the-ground reports after the event, not from a forecast. See today's incidents and all articles on the Global Incident Tracker home page.

The short version

  • Landfall by very severe Cyclone Arnab began early on 28 October 2026 along the Andhra Pradesh–Yanam coast, south of Yanam; at 6:30 am IST the centre was over the coast south of Yanam, with the rear eyewall expected inland within an hour.
  • Landfall winds were at least 115 km/h sustained, gusting to at least 140 km/h, with a storm surge of at least one metre.
  • Isolated extremely heavy rain was forecast for coastal Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha, with heavy rain inland to Telangana and Chhattisgarh.
  • A red cyclone warning was in force for coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha; fishermen were advised to stay out of the Bay of Bengal.
  • Stay indoors during landfall, avoid flooded roads and the coast, and wait for the official all-clear before travelling.