Kern County, California: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Kern County, California has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 98.9 out of 100, higher than about 98% of US counties, with wildfires, heat waves and earthquakes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $417 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 38 federal disaster declarations that included Kern County since 1967, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5522-CA (Borel Fire, declared 27 July 2024). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 16 tornadoes touching Kern County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 908,530 Buildings worth $165 billion Area 8,247 sq mi Risk rank in California 15 of 58 FIPS 06029
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 99.7 | $38 million | about once every 181 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively High | 99.5 | $43 million | about 7.5 a year | 73 |
| Earthquake | Relatively High | 99.4 | $184 million | about once every 12 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 98.5 | $147 million | about 5.6 a year | 158 |
| Landslide | Relatively High | 98.5 | $757,635 | about 129 a year | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 94.5 | $2.0 million | about 97 a year | 3,857 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 85.0 | $760,534 | about 8 a year | 175,558 strikes |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 82.2 | $190,199 | about 5.4 a year | 103 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 67.7 | $414,237 | about once every 10 years | 3.6 |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 59.6 | $25 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 2 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 46.8 | $336 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 46.0 | $399,076 | about once every 17 years | 3 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 19.8 | $185,553 | about once every 2.7 years | 15 |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 3.9 | $4,855 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Ice storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 38
Most common: Fire 17, Flood 7, Severe Storm 6, Freezing 3.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1970s | 3 | Flood, Drought, Fire |
| 1980s | 1 | Coastal Storm |
| 1990s | 6 | Severe Storm ×3, Freezing ×2, Flood |
| 2000s | 8 | Fire ×4, Severe Storm ×2, Freezing, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 13 | Fire ×10, Flood ×2, Earthquake |
| 2020s | 5 | Fire ×2, Hurricane, Severe Storm, Flood |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Kern County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3248-CA): 58 California counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms, Flooding Landslides, Mud Flow (1995, DR-1046-CA): 57 California counties designated.
- Drought (1977, EM-3023-CA): 47 California counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Tropical Storm Hilary (2023), Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. California also had 30 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 16
| Tornadoes touching the county | 16 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F1 ×1 |
| Peak month | February (4) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 1 Sep 2007, EF0, 13.1 mi path |
| Most recent | 2 Jun 2019, EF0, 0.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Kern County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kern County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 98.9 | Wildfire |
| Tulare County | 98 km | Relatively High | 97.0 | Heat wave |
| Ventura County | 104 km | Relatively High | 99.4 | Wildfire |
| Los Angeles County | 122 km | Very High | 100.0 | Earthquake |
| Kings County | 127 km | Relatively Moderate | 92.4 | Drought |
| Santa Barbara County | 139 km | Relatively High | 99.0 | Landslide |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in California, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 61.1 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 6.5 |
| Community risk factor | 1.28 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $417 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Kern County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for California · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Kern County
What natural disasters is Kern County, California most at risk from?
Kern County, California has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 98.9 out of 100, higher than about 98% of US counties, with wildfires, heat waves and earthquakes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $417 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Kern County had?
OpenFEMA lists 38 federal disaster declarations that included Kern County since 1967, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5522-CA (Borel Fire, declared 27 July 2024). Another 30 California declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Kern County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 16 tornadoes touching Kern County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.