Monterey County, California: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Monterey County, California has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 98.7 out of 100, higher than about 98% of US counties, with drought, landslides and earthquakes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $402 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 31 federal disaster declarations that included Monterey County since 1967, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4769-CA (Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared 13 April 2024). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 5 tornadoes touching Monterey County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 438,599 Buildings worth $86 billion Area 3,809 sq mi Risk rank in California 16 of 58 FIPS 06053
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Very High | 100.0 | $81 million | about 94 a year | 3,276 |
| Landslide | Relatively High | 99.9 | $4.7 million | about 13 a year | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively High | 99.4 | $182 million | about once every 6.5 years | — |
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 98.7 | $17 million | about once every 114 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 97.3 | $109 million | about 1.8 a year | 51 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 95.8 | $6.3 million | about 7.5 a year | 82 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 63.7 | $340,702 | about 2.7 a year | 20,948 strikes |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively Low | 59.8 | $422,006 | about 3.1 a year | — |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 46.2 | $711,653 | about once every 2.6 years | 83 |
| Hail | Very Low | 33.5 | $120,004 | about once every 21 years | 1.8 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 30.8 | $101 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 28.7 | $403,763 | about once every 7.5 years | 5 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 11.4 | $74,806 | about once every 59 years | 1 |
| Winter weather | Very Low | 5.8 | $3,709 | about 1.5 a year | 25 |
| Cold wave | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Ice storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 31
Most common: Severe Storm 8, Flood 8, Fire 7, Freezing 3.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1970s | 2 | Flood, Drought |
| 1980s | 3 | Earthquake, Fire, Coastal Storm |
| 1990s | 7 | Severe Storm ×4, Freezing ×2, Flood |
| 2000s | 4 | Fire ×2, Freezing, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 5 | Severe Storm ×2, Flood, Fire, Tsunami |
| 2020s | 8 | Flood ×3, Fire ×3, Severe Storm ×2 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Monterey County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3248-CA): 58 California counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms, Flooding Landslides, Mud Flow (1995, DR-1046-CA): 57 California counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Flooding, Mud and Landslides (1997, DR-1155-CA): 48 California counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. California also had 30 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 5
| Tornadoes touching the county | 5 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F1 ×2 |
| Peak month | December (3) |
| Deadliest | 6 Dec 1992, F1, 7 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured |
| Longest path | 6 Dec 1992, F1, 7 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured |
| Most recent | 22 Apr 2016, EF0, 0.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 2 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Monterey County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterey County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 98.7 | Drought |
| San Benito County | 46 km | Relatively Moderate | 85.2 | Landslide |
| Santa Cruz County | 115 km | Relatively High | 97.8 | Drought |
| Merced County | 118 km | Relatively High | 96.9 | Drought |
| San Luis Obispo County | 119 km | Relatively High | 95.9 | Drought |
| Santa Clara County | 120 km | Very High | 99.7 | Earthquake |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in California, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 54.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 24.7 |
| Community risk factor | 1.19 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $402 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Monterey County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for California · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Drought: Drought monitor for California
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Monterey County
What natural disasters is Monterey County, California most at risk from?
Monterey County, California has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 98.7 out of 100, higher than about 98% of US counties, with drought, landslides and earthquakes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $402 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Monterey County had?
OpenFEMA lists 31 federal disaster declarations that included Monterey County since 1967, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4769-CA (Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared 13 April 2024). Another 30 California declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Monterey County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 5 tornadoes touching Monterey County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 6 Dec 1992, F1, 7 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.