Bay County, Florida: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Bay County, Florida has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 94.1 out of 100, higher than about 94% of US counties, with hurricanes, lightning and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $158 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 49 federal disaster declarations that included Bay County since 1975, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4955-FL (Hurricane Isaias, declared 27 October 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 92 tornadoes touching Bay County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 174,869 Buildings worth $36 billion Area 1,482 sq mi Risk rank in Florida 22 of 67 FIPS 12005
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | Very High | 98.7 | $118 million | about once every 3.9 years | 106 |
| Lightning | Very High | 97.8 | $3.0 million | about 87 a year | 500,992 strikes |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 94.1 | $11 million | about once every 1.3 years | 57 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 84.3 | $2.1 million | about 6.7 a year | 58 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 79.3 | $3.6 million | about 1.6 a year | 16 |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively Moderate | 77.2 | $1.9 million | about 3.8 a year | — |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 75.7 | $294,375 | about once every 524 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 74.7 | $17 million | about 2 a year | 56 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 67.1 | $937,097 | about once a year | 23 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 54.9 | $377,863 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 33.4 | $423 | about once every 11 years | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 32.6 | $35,254 | about once every 6.4 years | 1.6 |
| Hail | Very Low | 20.4 | $75,932 | about once every 1.6 years | 25 |
| Drought | Very Low | 17.1 | $2,044 | about 17 a year | 602 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Ice storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 49
Most common: Hurricane 27, Severe Storm 8, Tropical Storm 5, Fire 5.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 3 | Flood ×2, Hurricane |
| 1990s | 12 | Hurricane ×5, Fire ×3, Severe Storm ×2, Flood ×2 |
| 2000s | 11 | Hurricane ×7, Severe Storm ×4 |
| 2010s | 8 | Hurricane ×6, Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2020s | 15 | Hurricane ×8, Tropical Storm ×5, Fire ×2 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Bay County
- Hurricane Ian (2022, DR-4673-FL): 67 Florida counties designated.
- Tropical Storm Ian (2022, EM-3584-FL): 67 Florida counties designated.
- Hurricane Dorian (2019, EM-3419-FL): 67 Florida counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Isaias (2026), Hurricane Helene (2024), Tropical Storm Helene (2024), Hurricane Debby (2024), Tropical Storm Debby (2024), Hurricane Idalia (2023), Tropical Storm Idalia (2023), Hurricane Ian (2022), Tropical Storm Ian (2022), Tropical Storm Fred (2021), Hurricane Sally (2020), Hurricane Dorian (2019), Hurricane Michael (2018), Hurricane Irma (2017), Hurricane Isaac (2012), Hurricane Gustav (2008), Tropical Storm Fay (2008), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Dennis (2005), Hurricane Ivan (2004), Hurricane Frances (2004), Tropical Storm Bonnie (2004), Tropical Storm Allison (2001), Tropical Storm Helene (2000), Hurricane Georges (1998), Hurricane Grorges (1998), Hurricane Earl (1998), Hurricane Opal (1995), Hurricane Erin (1995), Tropical Storm Alberto (1994), Hurricane Frederic (1979).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Florida also had 31 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 92
| Tornadoes touching the county | 92 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×2 |
| Peak month | April (14) |
| Deadliest | 10 Dec 1967, F3, 7.1 mi path, 1 killed, 50 injured |
| Longest path | 23 Apr 2020, EF0, 13.4 mi path |
| Most recent | 27 Oct 2025, EF1, 1.2 mi path, 0 killed, 10 injured |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 3 / 126 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 41 | 34 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 8 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 19 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Bay County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bay County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 94.1 | Hurricane |
| Washington County | 37 km | Relatively Low | 59.4 | Hurricane |
| Calhoun County | 42 km | Relatively Low | 44.9 | Hurricane |
| Gulf County | 52 km | Relatively Low | 59.5 | Hurricane |
| Walton County | 67 km | Relatively Moderate | 88.6 | Hurricane |
| Holmes County | 68 km | Relatively Low | 49.4 | Hurricane |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Florida, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 30.9 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 29.5 |
| Community risk factor | 0.99 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $158 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Bay County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Florida · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Hurricane: Is there a hurricane now? · Cyclone preparation
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Florida
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Bay County
What natural disasters is Bay County, Florida most at risk from?
Bay County, Florida has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 94.1 out of 100, higher than about 94% of US counties, with hurricanes, lightning and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $158 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Bay County had?
OpenFEMA lists 49 federal disaster declarations that included Bay County since 1975, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4955-FL (Hurricane Isaias, declared 27 October 2026). Another 31 Florida declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Bay County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 92 tornadoes touching Bay County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 10 Dec 1967, F3, 7.1 mi path, 1 killed, 50 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.