Maui County, Hawaii: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Maui County, Hawaii has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 93.1 out of 100, higher than about 93% of US counties, with volcanic activity, earthquakes and wildfires scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $132 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 31 federal disaster declarations that included Maui County since 1968, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4952-HI (Hurricane Lowell, declared 7 October 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 5 tornadoes touching Maui County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 164,632 Buildings worth $34 billion Area 2,423 sq mi Risk rank in Hawaii 3 of 5 FIPS 15009
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volcanic activity | Relatively High | 98.4 | $2.4 million | about once every 1,000 years | 1 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 97.1 | $33 million | about once every 27 years | — |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 95.3 | $3.8 million | about once every 234 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 93.7 | $59 million | about 4.3 a year | 121 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 93.3 | $1.5 million | about 56 a year | 356,338 strikes |
| Tsunami | Relatively High | 90.8 | $31 million | about once every 1.5 years | 147 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 69.5 | $552,512 | about once every 19 years | 6 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 55.8 | $2,034 | about 1.7 a year | — |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively Low | 54.0 | $246,404 | about once every 1.3 years | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 19.3 | $3,437 | about 45 a year | 3,241 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 5.9 | $25,326 | about once every 40 years | 4 |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 3.5 | $1,408 | about once every 629 years | 0 |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.2 | $2,978 | about once every 190 years | 0.2 |
| Winter weather | Very Low | 1.4 | $168 | about once every 19 years | 0.7 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 1.2 | $2,933 | about once every 422 years | 1 |
| Cold wave | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Heat wave | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 31
Most common: Fire 10, Hurricane 7, Flood 5, Severe Storm 5.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Flood |
| 1980s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1990s | 1 | Hurricane |
| 2000s | 6 | Fire ×3, Severe Storm ×2, Earthquake |
| 2010s | 9 | Hurricane ×3, Fire ×2, Severe Storm ×2, Mud/Landslide, Tsunami |
| 2020s | 12 | Fire ×5, Hurricane ×3, Flood ×2, Tropical Storm, Severe Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Maui County
- Hurricane Iniki (1992, DR-961-HI): 5 Hawaii counties designated.
- Tropical Storm Nolo (2026, EM-3654-HI): 4 Hawaii counties designated.
- Hurricane Douglas (2020, EM-3529-HI): 4 Hawaii counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Lowell (2026), Hurricane Lala (2026), Tropical Storm Nolo (2026), Hurricane Douglas (2020), Hurricane Lane (2018), Tropical Storm Olivia (2018), Tropical Storm Iselle (2014), Hurricane Iniki (1992).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Hawaii also had 10 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 5
| Tornadoes touching the county | 5 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F0 ×5 |
| Peak month | March (2) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 23 Mar 2006, F0, 1 mi path |
| Most recent | 11 Feb 2011, EF0 |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Maui County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maui County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 93.1 | Volcanic activity |
| Kalawao County | 53 km | Very Low | 0.1 | Earthquake |
| Honolulu County | 161 km | Relatively High | 98.8 | Lightning |
| Hawaii County | 178 km | Relatively High | 98.5 | Volcanic activity |
| Kauai County | 340 km | Relatively Moderate | 84.4 | Landslide |
| Marin County, CA | 3763 km | Relatively High | 96.4 | Landslide |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Hawaii, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 41.3 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 86.4 |
| Community risk factor | 1.05 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $132 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Maui County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Hawaii · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Volcanic activity: US volcano alerts
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Maui County
What natural disasters is Maui County, Hawaii most at risk from?
Maui County, Hawaii has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 93.1 out of 100, higher than about 93% of US counties, with volcanic activity, earthquakes and wildfires scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $132 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Maui County had?
OpenFEMA lists 31 federal disaster declarations that included Maui County since 1968, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4952-HI (Hurricane Lowell, declared 7 October 2026). Another 10 Hawaii declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Maui County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 5 tornadoes touching Maui County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.