Fayette County, Illinois: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Fayette County, Illinois has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 48.8 out of 100, higher than about 48% of US counties, with earthquakes, drought and landslides scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $15 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 6 federal disaster declarations that included Fayette County since 2002, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3577-IL (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared 13 December 2021). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 27 tornadoes touching Fayette County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Illinois All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 21,487 Buildings worth $6.3 billion Area 733 sq mi Risk rank in Illinois 61 of 102 FIPS 17051
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 86.1 | $3.0 million | about once every 181 years | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 73.7 | $623,547 | about 1.7 a year | 42 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 73.1 | $7,591 | about once every 2.3 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 70.9 | $920,272 | about 10 a year | 125 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 63.5 | $1.6 million | about 1.8 a year | 34 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 58.4 | $674,943 | about 5.1 a year | 195 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 56.4 | $324,792 | about 3.6 a year | 137 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 53.4 | $1.3 million | about once every 1.6 years | 20 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 49.5 | $6.4 million | about once every 1.1 years | 25 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 43.9 | $61,795 | about once every 1.1 years | 62 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 42.3 | $34,939 | about once every 39 years | 10 |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 41.6 | $166,404 | about 49 a year | 121,407 strikes |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 39.8 | $43,940 | about 7.8 a year | 148 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 15.8 | $5,267 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 6
Most common: Tornado 3, Snowstorm 1, Severe Ice Storm 1, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 2000s | 3 | Severe Ice Storm, Hurricane, Tornado |
| 2010s | 2 | Tornado, Snowstorm |
| 2020s | 1 | Tornado |
The last 6
Widest declarations that included Fayette County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3230-IL): 102 Illinois counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding (2002, DR-1416-IL): 68 Illinois counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm (2011, DR-1960-IL): 65 Illinois counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Illinois also had 2 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 27
| Tornadoes touching the county | 27 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×1 |
| Peak month | April (7) |
| Deadliest | 5 Apr 1958, F3, 60.5 mi path, 1 killed, 8 injured |
| Longest path | 5 Apr 1958, F3, 60.5 mi path, 1 killed, 8 injured |
| Most recent | 30 Apr 2025, EF0, 5 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 1 / 22 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 7 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Fayette County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fayette County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 48.8 | Earthquake |
| Bond County | 38 km | Very Low | 36.2 | Earthquake |
| Effingham County | 38 km | Relatively Low | 53.8 | Earthquake |
| Marion County | 40 km | Relatively Low | 77.1 | Earthquake |
| Montgomery County | 47 km | Relatively Low | 65.4 | Earthquake |
| Shelby County | 47 km | Relatively Low | 51.7 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Illinois, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 45.5 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 92.4 |
| Community risk factor | 1.08 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $15 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Fayette County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Illinois · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Drought: Drought monitor for Illinois
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Fayette County
What natural disasters is Fayette County, Illinois most at risk from?
Fayette County, Illinois has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 48.8 out of 100, higher than about 48% of US counties, with earthquakes, drought and landslides scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $15 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Fayette County had?
OpenFEMA lists 6 federal disaster declarations that included Fayette County since 2002, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3577-IL (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared 13 December 2021). Another 2 Illinois declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Fayette County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 27 tornadoes touching Fayette County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 5 Apr 1958, F3, 60.5 mi path, 1 killed, 8 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.