Lucas County, Iowa: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Lucas County, Iowa has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 29.7 out of 100, higher than about 29% of US counties, with drought, landslides and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $7.9 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 13 federal disaster declarations that included Lucas County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4421-IA (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 23 March 2019). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 12 tornadoes touching Lucas County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Iowa All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 8,623 Buildings worth $2.8 billion Area 439 sq mi Risk rank in Iowa 65 of 99 FIPS 19117
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively High | 94.4 | $1.9 million | about 12 a year | 420 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 73.8 | $6,871 | about once every 3.4 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 64.2 | $357,460 | about 5.4 a year | 205 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 58.0 | $1.1 million | about 4.7 a year | 90 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 57.3 | $1.3 million | about once every 3.0 years | 14 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 54.9 | $385,228 | about 7.6 a year | 110 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 54.6 | $49,919 | about once every 820 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 51.5 | $469,481 | about 5.2 a year | 198 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 28.1 | $23,384 | about once every 1.9 years | 36 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 24.1 | $33,674 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 22.7 | $2.2 million | about 3.2 a year | 90 |
| Winter weather | Very Low | 21.6 | $15,737 | about 12 a year | 218 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 15.1 | $42,137 | about 45 a year | 37,265 strikes |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 8.0 | $889 | about once every 174 years | 2 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 13
Most common: Flood 6, Severe Storm 5, Severe Ice Storm 1, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 3 | Flood ×3 |
| 2000s | 5 | Severe Storm ×3, Severe Ice Storm, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 4 | Flood ×2, Severe Storm ×2 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Lucas County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3239-IA): 99 Iowa counties designated.
- Severe Storms & Flooding (1993, DR-996-IA): 99 Iowa counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (2008, DR-1763-IA): 85 Iowa counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Iowa also had 7 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 12
| Tornadoes touching the county | 12 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×3 |
| Peak month | June (5) |
| Deadliest | 5 Mar 2022, EF3, 11.3 mi path, 1 killed, 1 injured |
| Longest path | 8 Apr 1999, F3, 39 mi path, 0 killed, 5 injured |
| Most recent | 5 Mar 2022, EF2, 19.4 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 1 / 6 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Lucas County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas County (this page) | — | Very Low | 29.7 | Drought |
| Wayne County | 32 km | Very Low | 22.0 | Drought |
| Clarke County | 38 km | Very Low | 18.4 | Drought |
| Monroe County | 38 km | Very Low | 10.3 | Drought |
| Marion County | 39 km | Very Low | 34.4 | Drought |
| Warren County | 39 km | Very Low | 36.1 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Iowa, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 69.1 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 81.3 |
| Community risk factor | 1.28 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $7.9 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Lucas County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Iowa · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Drought: Drought monitor for Iowa
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Hail: Weather alerts for Iowa
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Lucas County
What natural disasters is Lucas County, Iowa most at risk from?
Lucas County, Iowa has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 29.7 out of 100, higher than about 29% of US counties, with drought, landslides and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $7.9 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Lucas County had?
OpenFEMA lists 13 federal disaster declarations that included Lucas County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4421-IA (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 23 March 2019). Another 7 Iowa declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Lucas County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 12 tornadoes touching Lucas County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 5 Mar 2022, EF3, 11.3 mi path, 1 killed, 1 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.