Carlisle County, Kentucky: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Carlisle County, Kentucky has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 18.7 out of 100, higher than about 18% of US counties, with earthquakes, ice storms and drought scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $6.1 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 25 federal disaster declarations that included Carlisle County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 7 tornadoes touching Carlisle County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Kentucky All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 4,826 Buildings worth $1.2 billion Area 201 sq mi Risk rank in Kentucky 101 of 120 FIPS 21039
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 86.2 | $2.7 million | about once every 80 years | — |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 83.1 | $454,684 | about 1.4 a year | 96 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 70.9 | $479,612 | about 8.7 a year | 238 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 40.3 | $586 | about once every 2.3 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 40.0 | $201,176 | about 11 a year | 148 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 37.7 | $335,204 | about 3.3 a year | 126 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 34.5 | $452,155 | about once every 1.1 years | 17 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 30.5 | $459,069 | about once every 5.8 years | 8 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 30.5 | $26,467 | about 6.5 a year | 124 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 24.6 | $7,716 | about once every 86 years | 4 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 15.0 | $44,787 | about 56 a year | 30,565 strikes |
| Hail | Very Low | 14.4 | $41,974 | about 2.9 a year | 111 |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 7.3 | $877,011 | about 2.1 a year | 60 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 3.3 | $989 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 25
Most common: Severe Storm 15, Flood 3, Severe Ice Storm 2, Snowstorm 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 2 | Severe Storm, Snowstorm |
| 2000s | 9 | Severe Storm ×4, Severe Ice Storm ×2, Hurricane, Snowstorm, Tornado |
| 2010s | 4 | Severe Storm ×3, Flood |
| 2020s | 8 | Severe Storm ×7, Winter Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Carlisle County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3633-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (2025, EM-3626-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides (2025, EM-3624-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Tropical Depression Ike (2008), Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Kentucky also had 4 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 7
| Tornadoes touching the county | 7 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×3 |
| Peak month | April (2) |
| Deadliest | 23 Apr 2011, EF2, 4 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured |
| Longest path | 14 Mar 2019, EF2, 16.7 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured |
| Most recent | 2 Apr 2025, EF2, 9.7 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 3 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Carlisle County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle County (this page) | — | Very Low | 18.7 | Earthquake |
| Hickman County | 19 km | Very Low | 35.8 | Earthquake |
| Ballard County | 23 km | Very Low | 39.6 | Drought |
| Mississippi County, MO | 29 km | Relatively Low | 57.2 | Earthquake |
| Graves County | 32 km | Relatively Moderate | 84.0 | Earthquake |
| McCracken County | 32 km | Relatively Moderate | 89.7 | Earthquake |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Kentucky, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 55.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 31.6 |
| Community risk factor | 1.20 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $6.1 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Carlisle County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Kentucky · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Ice storm: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Drought: Drought monitor for Kentucky
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Carlisle County
What natural disasters is Carlisle County, Kentucky most at risk from?
Carlisle County, Kentucky has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 18.7 out of 100, higher than about 18% of US counties, with earthquakes, ice storms and drought scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $6.1 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Carlisle County had?
OpenFEMA lists 25 federal disaster declarations that included Carlisle County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). Another 4 Kentucky declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Carlisle County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 7 tornadoes touching Carlisle County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 23 Apr 2011, EF2, 4 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.