Dukes County, Massachusetts: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Dukes County, Massachusetts has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 16.8 out of 100, higher than about 16% of US counties, with hurricanes, coastal flooding and earthquakes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $7.3 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 20 federal disaster declarations that included Dukes County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3599-MA (Hurricane Lee, declared 15 September 2023). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 2 tornadoes touching Dukes County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Massachusetts All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 20,495 Buildings worth $7.7 billion Area 496 sq mi Risk rank in Massachusetts 14 of 14 FIPS 25007
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 80.8 | $2.4 million | about once every 6.2 years | 50 |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively Low | 55.4 | $348,024 | about 3.7 a year | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 33.5 | $113,361 | about once every 971 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 32.0 | $4.2 million | about once every 5.6 years | 5 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 27.9 | $14,062 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 19.9 | $4,368 | about 2.5 a year | 84 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 13.3 | $54 | about once every 60 years | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 12.8 | $50,203 | about 16 a year | 17,252 strikes |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 11.5 | $7,001 | about once every 4.2 years | 7 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 10.7 | $83,180 | about once every 24 years | 1 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 8.2 | $14,146 | about once every 1.4 years | 14 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 7.4 | $60,167 | about once every 3.1 years | 5 |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 5.6 | $27,108 | about once every 2.7 years | 7 |
| Winter weather | Very Low | 2.9 | $2,089 | about 6.7 a year | 128 |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.1 | $1,094 | about once every 1.8 years | 37 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 20
Most common: Hurricane 9, Snowstorm 4, Severe Storm 3, Coastal Storm 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 2 | Flood, Fishing Losses |
| 1980s | 1 | Hurricane |
| 1990s | 5 | Snowstorm ×2, Coastal Storm ×2, Hurricane |
| 2000s | 4 | Snowstorm ×2, Severe Storm, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 7 | Hurricane ×5, Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2020s | 1 | Hurricane |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Dukes County
- Hurricane Lee (2023, EM-3599-MA): 14 Massachusetts counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding (2013, DR-4110-MA): 14 Massachusetts counties designated.
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, EM-3350-MA): 14 Massachusetts counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Lee (2023), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Tropical Storm Irene (2011), Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Earl (2010), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Bob (1991), Hurricane Gloria (1985).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Massachusetts also had 6 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 2
| Tornadoes touching the county | 2 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×2 |
| Peak month | July (1) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 11 Jul 1958, F2, 1.5 mi path |
| Most recent | 11 Jul 1958, F2, 1.5 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Dukes County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dukes County (this page) | — | Very Low | 16.8 | Hurricane |
| Barnstable County | 47 km | Relatively Moderate | 89.1 | Coastal flooding |
| Nantucket County | 51 km | Very Low | 38.7 | Hurricane |
| Newport County, RI | 51 km | Very Low | 36.4 | Hurricane |
| Bristol County | 59 km | Relatively Moderate | 89.9 | Inland flooding |
| Bristol County, RI | 63 km | Very Low | 19.4 | Hurricane |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Massachusetts, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 26.7 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 99.7 |
| Community risk factor | 0.92 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $7.3 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Dukes County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Massachusetts · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Hurricane: Is there a hurricane now? · Cyclone preparation
- Coastal flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Hurricanes and storms now
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Dukes County
What natural disasters is Dukes County, Massachusetts most at risk from?
Dukes County, Massachusetts has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 16.8 out of 100, higher than about 16% of US counties, with hurricanes, coastal flooding and earthquakes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $7.3 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Dukes County had?
OpenFEMA lists 20 federal disaster declarations that included Dukes County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3599-MA (Hurricane Lee, declared 15 September 2023). Another 6 Massachusetts declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Dukes County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 2 tornadoes touching Dukes County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.