Carver County, Minnesota: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Carver County, Minnesota has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 59.7 out of 100, higher than about 59% of US counties, with strong winds, hail and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $41 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 15 federal disaster declarations that included Carver County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4797-MN (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 28 June 2024). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 27 tornadoes touching Carver County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 106,922 Buildings worth $29 billion Area 380 sq mi Risk rank in Minnesota 24 of 87 FIPS 27019
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 94.2 | $5.4 million | about 4.7 a year | 180 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 85.6 | $2.5 million | about 6.6 a year | 250 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 79.5 | $7.5 million | about once every 3.3 years | 15 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 73.8 | $5.0 million | about 9.8 a year | 187 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 73.7 | $2.1 million | about 6.3 a year | 95 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 66.9 | $8,715 | about once every 11 years | — |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 61.5 | $283,665 | about once every 1.7 years | 40 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 60.4 | $18 million | about once every 1.1 years | 25 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 49.7 | $124,567 | about 17 a year | 329 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 39.3 | $48,777 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 38.7 | $299,798 | about 37 a year | 91,843 strikes |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 36.2 | $92,351 | about 3.3 a year | 84 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 9.0 | $16,919 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 15
Most common: Flood 9, Severe Storm 3, Hurricane 1, Tornado 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1970s | 1 | Drought |
| 1980s | 1 | Severe Storm |
| 1990s | 3 | Tornado, Flood, Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 2 | Hurricane, Flood |
| 2010s | 5 | Flood ×4, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 1 | Flood |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Carver County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3242-MN): 87 Minnesota counties designated.
- Drought (1976, EM-3013-MN): 78 Minnesota counties designated.
- Flooding (1969, DR-255-MN): 70 Minnesota counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Minnesota also had 9 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 27
| Tornadoes touching the county | 27 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×2 |
| Peak month | June (12) |
| Deadliest | 6 May 1965, F4, 12.3 mi path, 3 killed, 175 injured |
| Longest path | 4 Jun 1975, F1, 30.7 mi path |
| Most recent | 28 Jun 2025, EF0, 5.7 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 4 / 350 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 15 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Carver County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carver County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 59.7 | Strong wind |
| Scott County | 28 km | Relatively Low | 76.6 | Strong wind |
| Hennepin County | 33 km | Relatively High | 98.3 | Cold wave |
| McLeod County | 37 km | Relatively Low | 46.6 | Strong wind |
| Wright County | 41 km | Relatively Low | 68.4 | Strong wind |
| Sibley County | 43 km | Very Low | 23.0 | Strong wind |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Minnesota, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 10.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 99.6 |
| Community risk factor | 0.53 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $41 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Carver County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Minnesota · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Hail: Weather alerts for Minnesota
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Carver County
What natural disasters is Carver County, Minnesota most at risk from?
Carver County, Minnesota has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 59.7 out of 100, higher than about 59% of US counties, with strong winds, hail and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $41 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Carver County had?
OpenFEMA lists 15 federal disaster declarations that included Carver County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4797-MN (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 28 June 2024). Another 9 Minnesota declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Carver County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 27 tornadoes touching Carver County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 6 May 1965, F4, 12.3 mi path, 3 killed, 175 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.