Sherburne County, Minnesota: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Sherburne County, Minnesota has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 53.6 out of 100, higher than about 53% of US counties, with strong winds, hail and wildfires scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $31 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 8 federal disaster declarations that included Sherburne County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3242-MN (Hurricane Katrina Evacuation, declared 13 September 2005). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 13 tornadoes touching Sherburne County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 97,144 Buildings worth $18 billion Area 456 sq mi Risk rank in Minnesota 26 of 87 FIPS 27141
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 87.8 | $3.2 million | about 4 a year | 153 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 77.9 | $1.4 million | about 6.1 a year | 230 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 76.4 | $518,792 | about once every 870 years | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 70.4 | $4.5 million | about once every 3.6 years | 10 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 62.5 | $17 million | about once every 4.7 years | 6 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 61.6 | $544,353 | about 9.1 a year | 308 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 61.0 | $605,139 | about 34 a year | 84,244 strikes |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 58.4 | $943,264 | about 3.4 a year | 56 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 54.0 | $1.9 million | about 11 a year | 206 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 51.4 | $117,255 | about 17 a year | 319 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 47.4 | $132,864 | about once every 2.1 years | 33 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 40.9 | $1,221 | about once every 15 years | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 6.5 | $10,969 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 8
Most common: Flood 4, Severe Storm 2, Hurricane 1, Drought 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 3 | Flood ×3 |
| 1970s | 1 | Drought |
| 1990s | 3 | Severe Storm ×2, Flood |
| 2000s | 1 | Hurricane |
The last 8
Widest declarations that included Sherburne County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3242-MN): 87 Minnesota counties designated.
- Drought (1976, EM-3013-MN): 78 Minnesota counties designated.
- Flooding (1969, DR-255-MN): 70 Minnesota counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Minnesota also had 9 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 13
| Tornadoes touching the county | 13 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×1 |
| Peak month | May (4) |
| Deadliest | 22 Jul 1967, F2, 16.4 mi path, 1 killed, 12 injured |
| Longest path | 22 Jul 1967, F2, 16.4 mi path, 1 killed, 12 injured |
| Most recent | 6 Mar 2017, EF1, 8.8 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 1 / 12 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Sherburne County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sherburne County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 53.6 | Strong wind |
| Benton County | 33 km | Relatively Low | 51.3 | Hail |
| Wright County | 33 km | Relatively Low | 68.4 | Strong wind |
| Isanti County | 40 km | Very Low | 26.9 | Wildfire |
| Anoka County | 45 km | Relatively Moderate | 88.0 | Strong wind |
| Hennepin County | 54 km | Relatively High | 98.3 | Cold wave |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Minnesota, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 10.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 95.6 |
| Community risk factor | 0.60 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $31 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Sherburne County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Minnesota · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Hail: Weather alerts for Minnesota
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Sherburne County
What natural disasters is Sherburne County, Minnesota most at risk from?
Sherburne County, Minnesota has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 53.6 out of 100, higher than about 53% of US counties, with strong winds, hail and wildfires scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $31 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Sherburne County had?
OpenFEMA lists 8 federal disaster declarations that included Sherburne County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3242-MN (Hurricane Katrina Evacuation, declared 13 September 2005). Another 9 Minnesota declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Sherburne County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 13 tornadoes touching Sherburne County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 22 Jul 1967, F2, 16.4 mi path, 1 killed, 12 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.