Bolivar County, Mississippi: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Bolivar County, Mississippi has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 76.8 out of 100, higher than about 76% of US counties, with earthquakes, drought and heat waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $22 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Bolivar County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4899-MS (Severe Winter Storm, declared 6 February 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 56 tornadoes touching Bolivar County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Mississippi All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 30,953 Buildings worth $9.3 billion Area 917 sq mi Risk rank in Mississippi 16 of 82 FIPS 28011
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 92.2 | $4.6 million | about once every 260 years | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 89.0 | $941,829 | about 13 a year | 448 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 84.0 | $1.2 million | about 18 a year | 278 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 82.9 | $2.8 million | about once every 1.6 years | 54 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 78.1 | $213,103 | about once every 1.2 years | 57 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 76.9 | $10 million | about 1.7 a year | 48 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 68.6 | $318,505 | about 2.7 a year | 104 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 66.4 | $254,181 | about once every 30 years | 12 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 64.2 | $497,073 | about 2 a year | 75 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 56.6 | $741,825 | about 1.3 a year | 24 |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 54.9 | $168,943 | about 63 a year | 147,498 strikes |
| Landslide | Very Low | 34.8 | $273 | about once every 4.3 years | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 26.3 | $15,086 | about 3.3 a year | 62 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 17.9 | $3,878 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 22
Most common: Severe Storm 8, Flood 5, Hurricane 4, Winter Storm 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 3 | Tornado, Snowstorm, Severe Storm |
| 1990s | 5 | Flood ×2, Severe Storm ×2, Severe Ice Storm |
| 2000s | 5 | Severe Storm ×3, Hurricane ×2 |
| 2010s | 3 | Flood ×3 |
| 2020s | 6 | Winter Storm ×2, Hurricane ×2, Severe Storm ×2 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Bolivar County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, DR-4899-MS): 82 Mississippi counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3640-MS): 82 Mississippi counties designated.
- Hurricane Ida (2021, DR-4626-MS): 82 Mississippi counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Ida (2021), Hurricane Gustav (2008), Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Mississippi also had 3 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 56
| Tornadoes touching the county | 56 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×1 |
| Peak month | January (11) |
| Deadliest | 23 Dec 2015, EF3, 61.6 mi path, 2 killed, 28 injured |
| Longest path | 23 Dec 2015, EF3, 61.6 mi path, 2 killed, 28 injured |
| Most recent | 3 Jul 2025, unrated |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 2 / 160 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 19 | 22 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 7 | 8 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Bolivar County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolivar County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 76.8 | Earthquake |
| Sunflower County | 35 km | Relatively Low | 69.6 | Cold wave |
| Desha County, AR | 35 km | Very Low | 32.9 | Earthquake |
| Coahoma County | 55 km | Relatively Low | 62.5 | Earthquake |
| Washington County | 57 km | Relatively Moderate | 83.0 | Tornado |
| Leflore County | 60 km | Relatively Low | 73.5 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Mississippi, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 98.7 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 45.8 |
| Community risk factor | 1.72 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $22 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Bolivar County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Mississippi · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Drought: Drought monitor for Mississippi
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Bolivar County
What natural disasters is Bolivar County, Mississippi most at risk from?
Bolivar County, Mississippi has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 76.8 out of 100, higher than about 76% of US counties, with earthquakes, drought and heat waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $22 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Bolivar County had?
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Bolivar County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4899-MS (Severe Winter Storm, declared 6 February 2026). Another 3 Mississippi declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Bolivar County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 56 tornadoes touching Bolivar County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 23 Dec 2015, EF3, 61.6 mi path, 2 killed, 28 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.