Smith County, Mississippi: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Smith County, Mississippi has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 47.2 out of 100, higher than about 47% of US counties, with hurricanes, hail and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $9.8 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 23 federal disaster declarations that included Smith County since 1969, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4899-MS (Severe Winter Storm, declared 6 February 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 94 tornadoes touching Smith County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Mississippi All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 14,181 Buildings worth $4.3 billion Area 644 sq mi Risk rank in Mississippi 48 of 82 FIPS 28129
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 83.9 | $2.1 million | about once every 7.8 years | 44 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 81.9 | $648,285 | about 4.8 a year | 182 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 71.2 | $1.7 million | about once a year | 77 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 64.3 | $2,393 | about once every 2.2 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 62.1 | $504,448 | about 3.9 a year | 149 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 60.8 | $193,776 | about 14 a year | 434 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 56.0 | $320,973 | about 12 a year | 179 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 53.6 | $64,747 | about once a year | 68 |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 52.3 | $166,277 | about 74 a year | 68,565 strikes |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 49.0 | $169,228 | about once every 571 years | — |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 47.3 | $26,462 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 47.0 | $551,161 | about once every 1.3 years | 15 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 40.8 | $3.3 million | about 1.1 a year | 30 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 32.5 | $21,730 | about 2.2 a year | 42 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 23
Most common: Severe Storm 8, Hurricane 8, Winter Storm 2, Tornado 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Hurricane |
| 1970s | 3 | Tornado, Snowstorm, Flood |
| 1990s | 2 | Tornado, Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 5 | Hurricane ×4, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 3 | Severe Storm ×2, Hurricane |
| 2020s | 9 | Severe Storm ×4, Winter Storm ×2, Hurricane ×2, Severe Ice Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Smith County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, DR-4899-MS): 82 Mississippi counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3640-MS): 82 Mississippi counties designated.
- Hurricane Ida (2021, DR-4626-MS): 82 Mississippi counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Ida (2021), Hurricane Isaac (2012), Hurricane Gustav (2008), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Dennis (2005), Hurricane Ivan (2004), Hurricane Camille (1969).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Mississippi also had 3 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 94
| Tornadoes touching the county | 94 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×2 |
| Peak month | April (23) |
| Deadliest | 27 Nov 1994, F3, 40 mi path, 2 killed, 0 injured |
| Longest path | 29 Mar 1976, F4, 126.5 mi path, 0 killed, 8 injured |
| Most recent | 6 Apr 2025, EF2, 3.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 5 / 177 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 26 | 43 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 9 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 23 | 17 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Smith County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smith County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 47.2 | Hurricane |
| Jasper County | 37 km | Very Low | 38.9 | Hurricane |
| Simpson County | 41 km | Relatively Low | 51.0 | Hurricane |
| Covington County | 43 km | Relatively Low | 50.8 | Hurricane |
| Scott County | 43 km | Relatively Low | 55.9 | Hail |
| Rankin County | 50 km | Relatively Moderate | 85.0 | Hail |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Mississippi, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 87.3 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 13.3 |
| Community risk factor | 1.60 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $9.8 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Smith County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Mississippi · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Hurricane: Is there a hurricane now? · Cyclone preparation
- Hail: Weather alerts for Mississippi
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Smith County
What natural disasters is Smith County, Mississippi most at risk from?
Smith County, Mississippi has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 47.2 out of 100, higher than about 47% of US counties, with hurricanes, hail and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $9.8 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Smith County had?
OpenFEMA lists 23 federal disaster declarations that included Smith County since 1969, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4899-MS (Severe Winter Storm, declared 6 February 2026). Another 3 Mississippi declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Smith County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 94 tornadoes touching Smith County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 27 Nov 1994, F3, 40 mi path, 2 killed, 0 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.