Keith County, Nebraska: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Keith County, Nebraska has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 13.8 out of 100, higher than about 13% of US counties, with hail, drought and wildfires scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $6.4 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 7 federal disaster declarations that included Keith County since 2001, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5623-NE (Morrill-Cottonwood Fire, declared 13 March 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornadoes touching Keith County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 8,319 Buildings worth $2.7 billion Area 1,121 sq mi Risk rank in Nebraska 58 of 93 FIPS 31101
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 84.4 | $1.3 million | about 6.9 a year | 261 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 75.9 | $820,972 | about 98 a year | 2,499 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 66.8 | $153,109 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 58.7 | $358,158 | about 44 a year | 57,350 strikes |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 53.8 | $82,512 | about 16 a year | 295 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 36.9 | $656,324 | about 4.7 a year | 89 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 36.3 | $412,508 | about 2.3 a year | 87 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 27.4 | $482,541 | about once every 1.6 years | 31 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 20.3 | $136 | about once every 3.2 years | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 16.8 | $23,555 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 16.6 | $12,912 | about once every 35 years | 2 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 16.1 | $47,001 | about 2 a year | 35 |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 15.3 | $2.1 million | about once every 2.2 years | 13 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 7
Most common: Severe Storm 4, Fire 1, Snowstorm 1, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 2000s | 4 | Severe Storm ×3, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 1 | Snowstorm |
| 2020s | 2 | Fire, Severe Storm |
The last 7
Widest declarations that included Keith County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuees (2005, EM-3245-NE): 93 Nebraska counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms (2007, DR-1674-NE): 59 Nebraska counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (2018, DR-4375-NE): 31 Nebraska counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Nebraska also had 6 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 55
| Tornadoes touching the county | 55 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×3 |
| Peak month | June (22) |
| Deadliest | 11 Apr 1977, F1, 0.5 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured |
| Longest path | 17 Oct 1971, F1, 11.5 mi path |
| Most recent | 23 May 2024, EF1, 2.1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 1 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 31 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 8 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Keith County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith County (this page) | — | Very Low | 13.8 | Hail |
| Perkins County | 39 km | Very Low | 4.4 | Hail |
| Arthur County | 41 km | Very Low | 0.3 | Wildfire |
| Deuel County | 57 km | Very Low | 4.0 | Drought |
| McPherson County | 65 km | Very Low | 0.1 | Drought |
| Sedgwick County, CO | 68 km | Very Low | 6.5 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Nebraska, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 23.0 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 35.7 |
| Community risk factor | 0.92 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $6.4 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Keith County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Nebraska · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Hail: Weather alerts for Nebraska
- Drought: Drought monitor for Nebraska
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Keith County
What natural disasters is Keith County, Nebraska most at risk from?
Keith County, Nebraska has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 13.8 out of 100, higher than about 13% of US counties, with hail, drought and wildfires scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $6.4 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Keith County had?
OpenFEMA lists 7 federal disaster declarations that included Keith County since 2001, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5623-NE (Morrill-Cottonwood Fire, declared 13 March 2026). Another 6 Nebraska declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Keith County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornadoes touching Keith County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 11 Apr 1977, F1, 0.5 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.