Pawnee County, Nebraska: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Pawnee County, Nebraska has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 3.8 out of 100, higher than about 3% of US counties, with wildfires, drought and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $2.4 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 18 federal disaster declarations that included Pawnee County since 1967, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4641-NE (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared 23 February 2022). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 22 tornadoes touching Pawnee County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 2,535 Buildings worth $1.0 billion Area 437 sq mi Risk rank in Nebraska 75 of 93 FIPS 31133
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 78.9 | $325,921 | about once every 400 years | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 53.4 | $165,898 | about 8.6 a year | 217 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 50.2 | $233,703 | about 7.7 a year | 292 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 37.4 | $489 | about once every 10 years | — |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 35.2 | $37,710 | about once every 1.2 years | 59 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 29.8 | $26,327 | about 12 a year | 229 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 28.2 | $405,272 | about once every 2.7 years | 13 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 27.2 | $101,690 | about 8.3 a year | 125 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 15.6 | $117,418 | about 4.5 a year | 172 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 9.4 | $27,880 | about 48 a year | 41,770 strikes |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 8.6 | $52,729 | about 3.3 a year | 63 |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 7.6 | $941,190 | about once every 2.5 years | 11 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 5.8 | $5,087 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 18
Most common: Severe Storm 10, Flood 6, Severe Ice Storm 1, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Flood |
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 2000s | 7 | Severe Storm ×5, Severe Ice Storm, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 6 | Severe Storm ×4, Flood ×2 |
| 2020s | 1 | Severe Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Pawnee County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuees (2005, EM-3245-NE): 93 Nebraska counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (2019, DR-4420-NE): 84 Nebraska counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorm (2010, DR-1878-NE): 58 Nebraska counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Nebraska also had 6 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 22
| Tornadoes touching the county | 22 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×4 |
| Peak month | June (6) |
| Deadliest | 3 Jul 1958, F2, 32.1 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured |
| Longest path | 7 Jun 1967, F2, 67.3 mi path |
| Most recent | 19 May 2025, unrated, 2.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 2 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 7 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Pawnee County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pawnee County (this page) | — | Very Low | 3.8 | Wildfire |
| Johnson County | 29 km | Very Low | 4.6 | Wildfire |
| Gage County | 41 km | Very Low | 40.6 | Hail |
| Nemaha County, KS | 43 km | Very Low | 17.4 | Wildfire |
| Nemaha County | 43 km | Very Low | 13.4 | Drought |
| Richardson County | 44 km | Very Low | 13.8 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Nebraska, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 54.1 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 47.1 |
| Community risk factor | 1.17 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $2.4 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Pawnee County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Nebraska · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Drought: Drought monitor for Nebraska
- Hail: Weather alerts for Nebraska
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Pawnee County
What natural disasters is Pawnee County, Nebraska most at risk from?
Pawnee County, Nebraska has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 3.8 out of 100, higher than about 3% of US counties, with wildfires, drought and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $2.4 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Pawnee County had?
OpenFEMA lists 18 federal disaster declarations that included Pawnee County since 1967, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4641-NE (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared 23 February 2022). Another 6 Nebraska declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Pawnee County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 22 tornadoes touching Pawnee County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 3 Jul 1958, F2, 32.1 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.