Warren County, New Jersey: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Warren County, New Jersey has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 80.8 out of 100, higher than about 80% of US counties, with strong winds, cold waves and inland (river and flash) flooding scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $57 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 25 federal disaster declarations that included Warren County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4725-NJ (Severe Storm and Flooding, declared 11 August 2023). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 6 tornadoes touching Warren County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 109,580 Buildings worth $29 billion Area 366 sq mi Risk rank in New Jersey 18 of 21 FIPS 34041
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 90.6 | $2.8 million | about 6.2 a year | 236 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 88.3 | $8.0 million | about once a year | 19 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 86.5 | $37 million | about 2.3 a year | 64 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 83.4 | $325,048 | about 15 a year | 276 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 79.9 | $2.5 million | about once every 19 years | 14 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 78.4 | $1.1 million | about 2.2 a year | 56 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 77.4 | $15,973 | about once every 2.9 years | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 72.7 | $716,685 | about 33 a year | 98,648 strikes |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 72.2 | $1.3 million | about 5.4 a year | 80 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 70.8 | $1.1 million | about once every 752 years | — |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 61.0 | $184,797 | about 1.7 a year | 117 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 49.7 | $1.6 million | about once every 6.5 years | 4 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 41.2 | $371 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 23.4 | $12,712 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 14.7 | $65,197 | about 2.6 a year | 99 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 25
Most common: Severe Storm 8, Hurricane 8, Snowstorm 4, Drought 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Drought |
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Drought |
| 1990s | 3 | Snowstorm ×2, Hurricane |
| 2000s | 8 | Severe Storm ×4, Hurricane, Snowstorm, Fire, Other |
| 2010s | 7 | Hurricane ×4, Severe Storm ×3 |
| 2020s | 4 | Hurricane ×2, Severe Storm, Snowstorm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Warren County
- Remnants of Hurricane Ida (2021, DR-4614-NJ): 21 New Jersey counties designated.
- Remnants of Hurricane Ida (2021, EM-3573-NJ): 21 New Jersey counties designated.
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, DR-4086-NJ): 21 New Jersey counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Ida (2021), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Tropical Storm Lee (2011), Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Floyd (1999).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New Jersey also had 2 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 6
| Tornadoes touching the county | 6 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×1 |
| Peak month | July (3) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 29 Jun 1994, F1, 14 mi path |
| Most recent | 14 Jul 2016, EF0, 2.8 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Warren County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 80.8 | Strong wind |
| Northampton County, PA | 29 km | Relatively Moderate | 90.0 | Winter weather |
| Hunterdon County | 33 km | Relatively Low | 78.7 | Strong wind |
| Monroe County, PA | 36 km | Relatively Moderate | 85.1 | Lightning |
| Morris County | 38 km | Relatively Moderate | 92.9 | Strong wind |
| Sussex County | 41 km | Relatively Low | 77.4 | Strong wind |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New Jersey, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 12.2 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 79.2 |
| Community risk factor | 0.79 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $57 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Warren County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New Jersey · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Warren County
What natural disasters is Warren County, New Jersey most at risk from?
Warren County, New Jersey has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 80.8 out of 100, higher than about 80% of US counties, with strong winds, cold waves and inland (river and flash) flooding scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $57 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Warren County had?
OpenFEMA lists 25 federal disaster declarations that included Warren County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4725-NJ (Severe Storm and Flooding, declared 11 August 2023). Another 2 New Jersey declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Warren County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 6 tornadoes touching Warren County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.