Bernalillo County, New Mexico: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Bernalillo County, New Mexico has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 94.4 out of 100, higher than about 94% of US counties, with winter storms, earthquakes and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $154 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 9 federal disaster declarations that included Bernalillo County since 2000, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5127-NM (Dog Head Fire, declared 16 June 2016). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 16 tornadoes touching Bernalillo County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 675,855 Buildings worth $129 billion Area 1,179 sq mi Risk rank in New Mexico 2 of 33 FIPS 35001
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter weather | Very High | 98.7 | $1.5 million | about 9.5 a year | 181 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 97.7 | $40 million | about once every 234 years | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 97.4 | $2.5 million | about 6 a year | 740,729 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 96.3 | $93 million | about 2.1 a year | 60 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 95.4 | $6.3 million | about 2 a year | 34 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 95.0 | $3.3 million | about once every 546 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively High | 95.0 | $2.8 million | about once every 1.5 years | 26 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 79.0 | $1.2 million | about once every 3.6 years | 11 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 65.7 | $168,101 | about once every 41 years | 1 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 57.8 | $233,962 | about 66 a year | 2,310 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 56.7 | $1.2 million | about once every 15 years | 1.3 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 56.1 | $1.5 million | about once every 12 years | 7 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 43.0 | $782 | about once every 3.6 years | — |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 21.2 | — | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 2 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 21.1 | $38 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 9
Most common: Fire 6, Severe Storm 2, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 2000s | 6 | Fire ×4, Hurricane, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 3 | Fire ×2, Severe Storm |
The last 9
Widest declarations that included Bernalillo County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3229-NM): 33 New Mexico counties designated.
- Severe Fire Threats (2000, EM-3154-NM): 33 New Mexico counties designated.
- Severe Forest Fire (2000, DR-1329-NM): 21 New Mexico counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New Mexico also had 14 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 16
| Tornadoes touching the county | 16 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×1 |
| Peak month | May (3) |
| Deadliest | 10 Oct 1974, F2, 2 mi path, 1 killed, 8 injured |
| Longest path | 10 Oct 1974, F2, 2 mi path, 1 killed, 8 injured |
| Most recent | 30 Jul 2025, unrated, 0.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 1 / 8 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Bernalillo County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernalillo County (this page) | — | Relatively High | 94.4 | Winter weather |
| Valencia County | 39 km | Relatively Moderate | 82.3 | Earthquake |
| Sandoval County | 73 km | Relatively Low | 77.0 | Landslide |
| Santa Fe County | 81 km | Relatively Moderate | 86.0 | Wildfire |
| Torrance County | 88 km | Relatively Low | 46.2 | Wildfire |
| Los Alamos County | 97 km | Very Low | 3.6 | Wildfire |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New Mexico, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 43.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 41.3 |
| Community risk factor | 1.09 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $154 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Bernalillo County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New Mexico · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Lightning: Weather alerts for New Mexico
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Bernalillo County
What natural disasters is Bernalillo County, New Mexico most at risk from?
Bernalillo County, New Mexico has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 94.4 out of 100, higher than about 94% of US counties, with winter storms, earthquakes and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $154 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Bernalillo County had?
OpenFEMA lists 9 federal disaster declarations that included Bernalillo County since 2000, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5127-NM (Dog Head Fire, declared 16 June 2016). Another 14 New Mexico declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Bernalillo County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 16 tornadoes touching Bernalillo County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 10 Oct 1974, F2, 2 mi path, 1 killed, 8 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.