Catron County, New Mexico: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Catron County, New Mexico has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 36.6 out of 100, higher than about 36% of US counties, with wildfires, landslides and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $6.8 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 10 federal disaster declarations that included Catron County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4152-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides, declared 29 October 2013). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching Catron County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for New Mexico All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 3,556 Buildings worth $1.4 billion Area 7,000 sq mi Risk rank in New Mexico 26 of 33 FIPS 35003
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 96.3 | $3.1 million | about once every 98 years | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 93.8 | $58,818 | about 2.8 a year | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 82.8 | $489,667 | about 65 a year | 99,551 strikes |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 51.3 | $368 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 41.1 | $3.0 million | about 1.1 a year | 32 |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 37.8 | $3 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 2 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 34.9 | $21,544 | about 13 a year | 238 |
| Drought | Very Low | 24.3 | $6,232 | about 106 a year | 2,835 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 22.9 | $21,382 | about once every 515 years | — |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 16.7 | $102,756 | about once every 19 years | 1 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 8.3 | $7,469 | about once every 2.6 years | 7.4 |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.0 | $3,058 | about once every 11 years | 3.4 |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 2.4 | $546 | about once every 67 years | 0 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 1.4 | $774 | about once every 17 years | 0 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 1.3 | $2,150 | about once every 22 years | 2 |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0.0 | — | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 3 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 10
Most common: Flood 6, Fire 3, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1980s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1990s | 1 | Flood |
| 2000s | 2 | Hurricane, Fire |
| 2010s | 3 | Fire ×2, Flood |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Catron County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3229-NM): 33 New Mexico counties designated.
- Severe Fire Threats (2000, EM-3154-NM): 33 New Mexico counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides (2013, DR-4152-NM): 23 New Mexico counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. New Mexico also had 14 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 0
No tornado in NOAA's Storm Prediction Center record touched Catron County between 1950 and 2025. That does not mean one cannot happen.
How Catron County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catron County (this page) | — | Very Low | 36.6 | Wildfire |
| Greenlee County, AZ | 110 km | Very Low | 12.4 | Wildfire |
| Cibola County | 117 km | Relatively Low | 58.4 | Lightning |
| Grant County | 131 km | Relatively Low | 74.1 | Wildfire |
| Socorro County | 136 km | Relatively Low | 61.5 | Wildfire |
| Sierra County | 142 km | Relatively Low | 55.8 | Wildfire |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in New Mexico, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 89.1 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 1.3 |
| Community risk factor | 1.77 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $6.8 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Catron County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for New Mexico · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Lightning: Weather alerts for New Mexico
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Catron County
What natural disasters is Catron County, New Mexico most at risk from?
Catron County, New Mexico has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 36.6 out of 100, higher than about 36% of US counties, with wildfires, landslides and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $6.8 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Catron County had?
OpenFEMA lists 10 federal disaster declarations that included Catron County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4152-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides, declared 29 October 2013). Another 14 New Mexico declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Catron County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching Catron County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.