Ellis County, Oklahoma: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Ellis County, Oklahoma has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 24.8 out of 100, higher than about 24% of US counties, with ice storms, drought and wildfires scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $5.7 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 27 federal disaster declarations that included Ellis County since 1990, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5557-OK (840 Road Fire, declared 14 March 2025). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 77 tornadoes touching Ellis County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Oklahoma All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 3,746 Buildings worth $942 million Area 1,244 sq mi Risk rank in Oklahoma 69 of 77 FIPS 40045
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 94.7 | $1.1 million | about once every 1.5 years | 46 |
| Drought | Relatively High | 93.6 | $1.5 million | about 9 a year | 2,569 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 85.2 | $480,618 | about once every 70 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 63.2 | $289,219 | about 7.3 a year | 279 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 54.7 | $51,938 | about 11 a year | 199 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 52.7 | $719,247 | about 2.8 a year | 54 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 39.3 | $279,574 | about 3.3 a year | 125 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 38.2 | $540,282 | about once every 1.2 years | 43 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 37.3 | $373 | about once every 3.5 years | — |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 28.9 | $85,353 | about 5.5 a year | 77 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 25.0 | $6,308 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 22.6 | $24,233 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 7.5 | $16,228 | about 47 a year | 59,839 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 7.0 | $669,601 | about once every 4.0 years | 7 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 27
Most common: Severe Storm 11, Severe Ice Storm 8, Fire 5, Snowstorm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1990s | 2 | Tornado, Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 11 | Severe Storm ×5, Severe Ice Storm ×3, Snowstorm, Fire, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 9 | Severe Storm ×5, Fire ×2, Severe Ice Storm ×2 |
| 2020s | 5 | Severe Ice Storm ×3, Fire ×2 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Ellis County
- Severe Winter Storms (2021, DR-4587-OK): 77 Oklahoma counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2021, EM-3555-OK): 77 Oklahoma counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2011, EM-3316-OK): 77 Oklahoma counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Oklahoma also had 24 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 77
| Tornadoes touching the county | 77 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×3 |
| Peak month | May (27) |
| Deadliest | 14 Apr 2012, EF3, 34 mi path, 6 killed, 29 injured |
| Longest path | 14 Apr 2012, EF3, 34 mi path, 6 killed, 29 injured |
| Most recent | 17 Jun 2025, EF2, 14.3 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 6 / 35 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 39 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 14 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 5 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Ellis County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellis County (this page) | — | Very Low | 24.8 | Ice storm |
| Lipscomb County, TX | 47 km | Very Low | 27.9 | Drought |
| Woodward County | 49 km | Very Low | 41.6 | Ice storm |
| Roger Mills County | 59 km | Very Low | 23.2 | Drought |
| Hemphill County, TX | 63 km | Very Low | 16.5 | Drought |
| Harper County | 64 km | Relatively Low | 45.7 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Oklahoma, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 84.9 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 26.8 |
| Community risk factor | 1.53 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $5.7 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Ellis County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Oklahoma · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Ice storm: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Drought: Drought monitor for Oklahoma
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Ellis County
What natural disasters is Ellis County, Oklahoma most at risk from?
Ellis County, Oklahoma has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 24.8 out of 100, higher than about 24% of US counties, with ice storms, drought and wildfires scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $5.7 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Ellis County had?
OpenFEMA lists 27 federal disaster declarations that included Ellis County since 1990, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5557-OK (840 Road Fire, declared 14 March 2025). Another 24 Oklahoma declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Ellis County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 77 tornadoes touching Ellis County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 14 Apr 2012, EF3, 34 mi path, 6 killed, 29 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.