Payne County, Oklahoma: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Payne County, Oklahoma has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 83.9 out of 100, higher than about 83% of US counties, with ice storms, cold waves and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $50 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 37 federal disaster declarations that included Payne County since 1974, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4866-OK (Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds, declared 21 May 2025). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 58 tornadoes touching Payne County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 81,605 Buildings worth $16 billion Area 704 sq mi Risk rank in Oklahoma 6 of 77 FIPS 40119
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ice storm | Very High | 97.3 | $2.4 million | about 1.1 a year | 73 |
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 97.0 | $15 million | about 2.2 a year | 41 |
| Hail | Relatively High | 96.4 | $3.6 million | about 11 a year | 426 |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 94.7 | $11 million | about once every 1.2 years | 39 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 89.6 | $1.3 million | about once every 164 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 86.7 | $2.3 million | about 19 a year | 294 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 83.0 | $234,316 | about 9.4 a year | 179 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 81.0 | $1.3 million | about 6.9 a year | 260 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 71.8 | $565,121 | about 36 a year | 1,211 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 67.6 | $12 million | about once every 1.1 years | 26 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 61.7 | $2,911 | about once every 4.6 years | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 58.3 | $403,616 | about once every 962 years | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 41.9 | $168,031 | about 52 a year | 159,051 strikes |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 30.5 | $14,198 | about once every 135 years | 4 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 37
Most common: Fire 11, Severe Storm 10, Severe Ice Storm 9, Flood 4.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 3 | Flood ×2, Severe Storm |
| 1980s | 3 | Flood ×2, Tornado |
| 1990s | 4 | Severe Storm ×2, Tornado, Fire |
| 2000s | 13 | Severe Ice Storm ×6, Fire ×4, Severe Storm ×2, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 6 | Severe Storm ×4, Fire ×2 |
| 2020s | 8 | Fire ×4, Severe Ice Storm ×3, Severe Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Payne County
- Severe Winter Storms (2021, DR-4587-OK): 77 Oklahoma counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2021, EM-3555-OK): 77 Oklahoma counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2011, EM-3316-OK): 77 Oklahoma counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Oklahoma also had 24 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 58
| Tornadoes touching the county | 58 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×1 |
| Peak month | May (29) |
| Deadliest | 3 May 1999, F4, 35 mi path, 2 killed, 26 injured |
| Longest path | 26 Apr 1984, F0, 39 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured |
| Most recent | 27 Apr 2024, EF0, 5.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 3 / 83 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 18 | 23 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 11 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 3 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Payne County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payne County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 83.9 | Ice storm |
| Pawnee County | 36 km | Relatively Low | 48.1 | Ice storm |
| Noble County | 41 km | Relatively Low | 44.0 | Drought |
| Lincoln County | 42 km | Relatively Low | 71.3 | Ice storm |
| Logan County | 46 km | Relatively Low | 74.7 | Ice storm |
| Creek County | 58 km | Relatively Moderate | 83.2 | Ice storm |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Oklahoma, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 42.5 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 46.8 |
| Community risk factor | 1.08 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $50 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Payne County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Oklahoma · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Ice storm: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Hail: Weather alerts for Oklahoma
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Payne County
What natural disasters is Payne County, Oklahoma most at risk from?
Payne County, Oklahoma has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 83.9 out of 100, higher than about 83% of US counties, with ice storms, cold waves and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $50 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Payne County had?
OpenFEMA lists 37 federal disaster declarations that included Payne County since 1974, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4866-OK (Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds, declared 21 May 2025). Another 24 Oklahoma declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Payne County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 58 tornadoes touching Payne County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 3 May 1999, F4, 35 mi path, 2 killed, 26 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.