Josephine County, Oregon: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Josephine County, Oregon has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 90.2 out of 100, higher than about 90% of US counties, with wildfires, earthquakes and inland (river and flash) flooding scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $70 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 23 federal disaster declarations that included Josephine County since 1964, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5670-OR (Fielder Mountain Fire, declared 14 August 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching Josephine County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Oregon All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 88,032 Buildings worth $18 billion Area 1,657 sq mi Risk rank in Oregon 10 of 36 FIPS 41033
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 99.2 | $23 million | about once every 59 years | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 95.2 | $12 million | about once every 65 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 90.2 | $32 million | about once every 1.6 years | 18 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 89.4 | $2.4 million | about 8 a year | 113 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 85.7 | $26,848 | about 3.4 a year | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 80.0 | $171,911 | about 21 a year | 407 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 45.2 | $301 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 29.9 | $87,813 | about 6 a year | 17,052 strikes |
| Hail | Very Low | 18.2 | $52,633 | about once every 8.8 years | 4.3 |
| Drought | Very Low | 14.1 | $206 | about 26 a year | 1,113 |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 13.0 | $6,047 | about once every 67 years | 0 |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 12.4 | — | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 1 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 11.3 | $68,978 | about once every 20 years | 2 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 4.9 | $15,322 | about once every 61 years | 0 |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 3.3 | $628 | about once every 258 years | 0.1 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 23
Most common: Fire 13, Severe Storm 5, Flood 3, Coastal Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Flood |
| 1970s | 2 | Drought, Flood |
| 1990s | 2 | Severe Storm, Flood |
| 2000s | 5 | Fire ×3, Severe Storm, Coastal Storm |
| 2010s | 9 | Fire ×7, Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2020s | 4 | Fire ×3, Severe Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Josephine County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3228-OR): 36 Oregon counties designated.
- Heavy Rains & Flooding (1964, DR-184-OR): 36 Oregon counties designated.
- High Winds, Severe Storms and Flooding (1996, DR-1099-OR): 27 Oregon counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Oregon also had 33 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 0
No tornado in NOAA's Storm Prediction Center record touched Josephine County between 1950 and 2025. That does not mean one cannot happen.
How Josephine County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josephine County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 90.2 | Wildfire |
| Curry County | 50 km | Relatively Moderate | 86.5 | Earthquake |
| Jackson County | 68 km | Relatively Moderate | 92.5 | Wildfire |
| Del Norte County, CA | 75 km | Relatively High | 94.4 | Landslide |
| Coos County | 99 km | Relatively Moderate | 91.9 | Earthquake |
| Douglas County | 107 km | Relatively Moderate | 92.9 | Wildfire |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Oregon, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 66.4 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 49.8 |
| Community risk factor | 1.28 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $70 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Josephine County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Oregon · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Josephine County
What natural disasters is Josephine County, Oregon most at risk from?
Josephine County, Oregon has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 90.2 out of 100, higher than about 90% of US counties, with wildfires, earthquakes and inland (river and flash) flooding scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $70 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Josephine County had?
OpenFEMA lists 23 federal disaster declarations that included Josephine County since 1964, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5670-OR (Fielder Mountain Fire, declared 14 August 2026). Another 33 Oregon declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Josephine County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching Josephine County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.