Lincoln County, Oregon: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Lincoln County, Oregon has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 89.9 out of 100, higher than about 89% of US counties, with earthquakes, landslides and ice storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $59 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Lincoln County since 1964, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4907-OR (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared 7 April 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 4 tornadoes touching Lincoln County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Oregon All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 50,204 Buildings worth $16 billion Area 1,207 sq mi Risk rank in Oregon 11 of 36 FIPS 41041
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 97.8 | $31 million | about once every 56 years | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 97.5 | $289,823 | about 9 a year | — |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 86.9 | $498,342 | about once every 4.1 years | 14 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 86.6 | $20 million | about once every 1.6 years | 17 |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 83.7 | $1,208 | about once every 99 years | 1 |
| Tsunami | Relatively Moderate | 76.9 | $6.1 million | about once every 6.9 years | 32 |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively Moderate | 71.8 | $901,491 | about 3.8 a year | — |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 50.8 | $35,528 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 38.1 | $147,148 | about 3.5 a year | 49 |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 28.2 | $71,892 | about 6.3 a year | 21,199 strikes |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 24.3 | $40 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 14.8 | $85,535 | about once every 40 years | 1 |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 14.0 | $96,884 | about once every 19 years | 0.8 |
| Drought | Very Low | 12.7 | $5 | about 5.1 a year | 161 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 11.2 | $56,137 | about once every 18 years | 2 |
| Winter weather | Very Low | 10.4 | $5,708 | about 8.4 a year | 131 |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.3 | $4,735 | about once every 59 years | 0.7 |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 22
Most common: Severe Storm 11, Flood 5, Fire 3, Tsunami 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Flood |
| 1970s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1990s | 3 | Severe Storm, Flood, Fishing Losses |
| 2000s | 6 | Severe Storm ×5, Coastal Storm |
| 2010s | 5 | Severe Storm ×3, Flood, Tsunami |
| 2020s | 5 | Fire ×3, Severe Storm ×2 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Lincoln County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3228-OR): 36 Oregon counties designated.
- Heavy Rains & Flooding (1964, DR-184-OR): 36 Oregon counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms (2004, DR-1510-OR): 30 Oregon counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Oregon also had 33 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 4
| Tornadoes touching the county | 4 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F0 ×4 |
| Peak month | October (2) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 31 Oct 2024, EF0, 0.2 mi path |
| Most recent | 31 Oct 2024, EF0, 0.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Lincoln County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 89.9 | Earthquake |
| Benton County | 39 km | Relatively Moderate | 84.4 | Landslide |
| Polk County | 46 km | Relatively Low | 72.8 | Earthquake |
| Yamhill County | 79 km | Relatively Moderate | 82.9 | Earthquake |
| Tillamook County | 92 km | Relatively Moderate | 81.3 | Earthquake |
| Marion County | 105 km | Relatively High | 95.5 | Earthquake |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Oregon, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 84.4 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 53.9 |
| Community risk factor | 1.47 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $59 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Lincoln County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Oregon · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Ice storm: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Lincoln County
What natural disasters is Lincoln County, Oregon most at risk from?
Lincoln County, Oregon has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 89.9 out of 100, higher than about 89% of US counties, with earthquakes, landslides and ice storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $59 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Lincoln County had?
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Lincoln County since 1964, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4907-OR (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared 7 April 2026). Another 33 Oregon declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Lincoln County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 4 tornadoes touching Lincoln County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.