Butler County, Pennsylvania: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Butler County, Pennsylvania has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 79.3 out of 100, higher than about 79% of US counties, with lightning, inland (river and flash) flooding and landslides scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $48 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 9 federal disaster declarations that included Butler County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3356-PA (Hurricane Sandy, declared 29 October 2012). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 28 tornadoes touching Butler County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Pennsylvania All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 193,593 Buildings worth $51 billion Area 804 sq mi Risk rank in Pennsylvania 24 of 67 FIPS 42019
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Relatively High | 90.0 | $1.4 million | about 4 a year | 219,940 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 89.0 | $41 million | about 2.5 a year | 69 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 83.9 | $30,513 | about once a year | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 79.6 | $1.5 million | about 2.4 a year | 91 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 67.3 | $138,834 | about 13 a year | 254 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 59.8 | $2.1 million | about once every 3.0 years | 23 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 57.0 | $175,380 | about once every 48 years | 6 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 52.8 | $112,784 | about once every 2.7 years | 26 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 52.1 | $359,112 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 41.1 | $285,263 | about 1.6 a year | 31 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 39.0 | $28,420 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 26.2 | $115,514 | about 3.3 a year | 126 |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 15.5 | $186,862 | about 3.3 a year | 62 |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 9
Most common: Hurricane 3, Flood 3, Snowstorm 2, Severe Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 2 | Flood, Snowstorm |
| 2000s | 3 | Hurricane ×2, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 2 | Hurricane, Snowstorm |
The last 9
Widest declarations that included Butler County
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, EM-3356-PA): 67 Pennsylvania counties designated.
- Hurricane Katrina (2005, EM-3235-PA): 67 Pennsylvania counties designated.
- Tropical Depression Ivan (2004, DR-1557-PA): 67 Pennsylvania counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Sandy (2012), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Depression Ivan (2004), Tropical Depression Frances (2004), Tropical Storm Agnes (1972).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Pennsylvania also had 5 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 28
| Tornadoes touching the county | 28 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×1 |
| Peak month | July (9) |
| Deadliest | 31 May 1985, F3, 39 mi path, 9 killed, 120 injured |
| Longest path | 31 May 1985, F3, 39 mi path, 9 killed, 120 injured |
| Most recent | 21 May 2025, EF0, 0.4 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 9 / 122 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 16 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Butler County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butler County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 79.3 | Lightning |
| Lawrence County | 36 km | Relatively Low | 66.1 | Inland flooding |
| Armstrong County | 39 km | Relatively Low | 69.3 | Landslide |
| Beaver County | 45 km | Relatively Low | 75.3 | Inland flooding |
| Allegheny County | 50 km | Relatively High | 98.1 | Inland flooding |
| Clarion County | 52 km | Very Low | 30.0 | Lightning |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Pennsylvania, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 20.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 86.6 |
| Community risk factor | 0.89 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $48 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Butler County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Pennsylvania · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Pennsylvania
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Butler County
What natural disasters is Butler County, Pennsylvania most at risk from?
Butler County, Pennsylvania has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 79.3 out of 100, higher than about 79% of US counties, with lightning, inland (river and flash) flooding and landslides scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $48 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Butler County had?
OpenFEMA lists 9 federal disaster declarations that included Butler County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3356-PA (Hurricane Sandy, declared 29 October 2012). Another 5 Pennsylvania declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Butler County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 28 tornadoes touching Butler County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 31 May 1985, F3, 39 mi path, 9 killed, 120 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.