Carbon County, Pennsylvania: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Carbon County, Pennsylvania has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 59.4 out of 100, higher than about 59% of US counties, with lightning, heat waves and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $22 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 16 federal disaster declarations that included Carbon County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3356-PA (Hurricane Sandy, declared 29 October 2012). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 4 tornadoes touching Carbon County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 64,728 Buildings worth $13 billion Area 391 sq mi Risk rank in Pennsylvania 46 of 67 FIPS 42025
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Relatively High | 87.8 | $1.1 million | about 34 a year | 96,386 strikes |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 82.1 | $1.7 million | about 1.9 a year | 27 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 78.7 | $201,737 | about 18 a year | 339 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 78.5 | $1.3 million | about 4.4 a year | 166 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 76.7 | $3.1 million | about 3.2 a year | 61 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 73.1 | $807,036 | about once every 19 years | 12 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 71.0 | $6,784 | about once every 3.3 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 67.5 | $12 million | about 1.9 a year | 54 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 58.5 | $1,321 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 50.5 | $90,018 | about 1.8 a year | 118 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 46.6 | $238,187 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 41.3 | $29,635 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 37.9 | $798,795 | about once every 6.2 years | 3 |
| Hail | Very Low | 15.5 | $54,131 | about 2.1 a year | 81 |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 16
Most common: Hurricane 4, Flood 4, Severe Storm 4, Snowstorm 3.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 2 | Flood, Drought |
| 1970s | 2 | Snowstorm, Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Hurricane |
| 1990s | 4 | Snowstorm ×2, Flood, Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 5 | Severe Storm ×3, Hurricane ×2 |
| 2010s | 2 | Hurricane, Flood |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Carbon County
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, EM-3356-PA): 67 Pennsylvania counties designated.
- Hurricane Katrina (2005, EM-3235-PA): 67 Pennsylvania counties designated.
- Tropical Depression Ivan (2004, DR-1557-PA): 67 Pennsylvania counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Sandy (2012), Tropical Storm Lee (2011), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Depression Ivan (2004), Tropical Depression Frances (2004), Hurricane Gloria (1985), Tropical Storm Agnes (1972).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Pennsylvania also had 5 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 4
| Tornadoes touching the county | 4 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×1 |
| Peak month | April (1) |
| Deadliest | 23 May 2011, EF0, 0.4 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured |
| Longest path | 7 Aug 1978, F0, 1.9 mi path |
| Most recent | 2 Oct 2018, EF1, 1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 1 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Carbon County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carbon County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 59.4 | Lightning |
| Monroe County | 35 km | Relatively Moderate | 85.1 | Lightning |
| Lehigh County | 35 km | Relatively Moderate | 93.9 | Cold wave |
| Luzerne County | 37 km | Relatively Moderate | 91.6 | Winter weather |
| Northampton County | 38 km | Relatively Moderate | 90.0 | Winter weather |
| Schuylkill County | 49 km | Relatively Moderate | 85.3 | Winter weather |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Pennsylvania, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 35.0 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 61.2 |
| Community risk factor | 1.01 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $22 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Carbon County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Pennsylvania · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Pennsylvania
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Carbon County
What natural disasters is Carbon County, Pennsylvania most at risk from?
Carbon County, Pennsylvania has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 59.4 out of 100, higher than about 59% of US counties, with lightning, heat waves and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $22 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Carbon County had?
OpenFEMA lists 16 federal disaster declarations that included Carbon County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3356-PA (Hurricane Sandy, declared 29 October 2012). Another 5 Pennsylvania declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Carbon County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 4 tornadoes touching Carbon County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 23 May 2011, EF0, 0.4 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.