Dauphin County, Pennsylvania: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Dauphin County, Pennsylvania has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 91.1 out of 100, higher than about 91% of US counties, with winter storms, inland (river and flash) flooding and strong winds scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $100 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 20 federal disaster declarations that included Dauphin County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4618-PA (Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared 10 September 2021). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 21 tornadoes touching Dauphin County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Pennsylvania All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 286,115 Buildings worth $70 billion Area 564 sq mi Risk rank in Pennsylvania 11 of 67 FIPS 42043
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter weather | Very High | 98.2 | $1.4 million | about 12 a year | 234 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 94.8 | $75 million | about 2 a year | 57 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 93.2 | $2.6 million | about 4.8 a year | 181 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 89.2 | $6.9 million | about once every 15 years | 22 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 88.4 | $2.8 million | about 5.1 a year | 75 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 88.3 | $1.1 million | about 35 a year | 325,110 strikes |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 87.3 | $3.6 million | about once every 877 years | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 84.6 | $29,216 | about once every 1.7 years | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 79.8 | $4.0 million | about once every 3.6 years | 20 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 67.7 | $2.0 million | about 1.2 a year | 23 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 51.7 | $93,874 | about once every 1.7 years | 39 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 49.3 | $141,412 | about once every 2.7 years | 70 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 41.1 | $287 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 38.9 | $24,581 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 23.7 | $88,690 | about 2.2 a year | 85 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 20
Most common: Flood 7, Hurricane 5, Snowstorm 4, Severe Storm 4.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 3 | Flood ×3 |
| 1990s | 5 | Flood ×2, Snowstorm ×2, Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 5 | Severe Storm ×3, Hurricane ×2 |
| 2010s | 6 | Snowstorm ×2, Hurricane ×2, Flood ×2 |
| 2020s | 1 | Hurricane |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Dauphin County
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, EM-3356-PA): 67 Pennsylvania counties designated.
- Hurricane Katrina (2005, EM-3235-PA): 67 Pennsylvania counties designated.
- Tropical Depression Ivan (2004, DR-1557-PA): 67 Pennsylvania counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Ida (2021), Hurricane Sandy (2013), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Tropical Storm Lee (2011), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Depression Ivan (2004), Tropical Depression Frances (2004), Tropical Depression Dennis (1999), Tropical Storm Agnes (1972).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Pennsylvania also had 5 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 21
| Tornadoes touching the county | 21 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×4 |
| Peak month | July (5) |
| Deadliest | 1 Dec 2006, F1, 1.5 mi path, 1 killed, 0 injured |
| Longest path | 18 Oct 1967, F2, 10.2 mi path, 0 killed, 11 injured |
| Most recent | 9 Aug 2024, EF1, 3.5 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 1 / 18 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Dauphin County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dauphin County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 91.1 | Winter weather |
| Lebanon County | 28 km | Relatively Low | 79.9 | Winter weather |
| Perry County | 41 km | Relatively Low | 53.1 | Landslide |
| Snyder County | 46 km | Relatively Low | 54.3 | Winter weather |
| Northumberland County | 49 km | Relatively Low | 79.2 | Winter weather |
| Cumberland County | 50 km | Relatively Moderate | 86.2 | Winter weather |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Pennsylvania, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 37.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 96.6 |
| Community risk factor | 1.02 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $100 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Dauphin County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Pennsylvania · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Dauphin County
What natural disasters is Dauphin County, Pennsylvania most at risk from?
Dauphin County, Pennsylvania has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 91.1 out of 100, higher than about 91% of US counties, with winter storms, inland (river and flash) flooding and strong winds scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $100 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Dauphin County had?
OpenFEMA lists 20 federal disaster declarations that included Dauphin County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4618-PA (Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared 10 September 2021). Another 5 Pennsylvania declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Dauphin County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 21 tornadoes touching Dauphin County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 1 Dec 2006, F1, 1.5 mi path, 1 killed, 0 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.