Lancaster County, South Carolina: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Lancaster County, South Carolina has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 79.4 out of 100, higher than about 79% of US counties, with ice storms, strong winds and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $40 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Lancaster County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3632-SC (Severe Winter Storm, declared 23 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 11 tornadoes touching Lancaster County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for South Carolina All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 95,804 Buildings worth $19 billion Area 561 sq mi Risk rank in South Carolina 22 of 46 FIPS 45057
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 93.1 | $1.2 million | about 1.5 a year | 100 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 89.8 | $2.0 million | about 4.7 a year | 177 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 88.5 | $6.3 million | about once every 2.8 years | 12 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 87.1 | $5.5 million | about once every 2.7 years | 7 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 82.0 | $2.0 million | about once every 439 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 81.3 | $21 million | about once every 1.5 years | 19 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 81.2 | $743,353 | about 54 a year | 146,753 strikes |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 75.0 | $947,994 | about once every 6.1 years | 47 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 57.8 | $519,661 | about 3 a year | 46 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 52.9 | $287,382 | about 4.2 a year | 160 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 52.4 | $1,528 | about once every 1.7 years | — |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 45.1 | $33,858 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 44.7 | $52,524 | about 3.1 a year | 58 |
| Drought | Very Low | 30.2 | $25,573 | about 21 a year | 763 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 22
Most common: Hurricane 13, Tropical Storm 2, Flood 2, Severe Storm 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Drought |
| 1980s | 1 | Hurricane |
| 1990s | 1 | Flood |
| 2000s | 3 | Hurricane ×2, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 9 | Hurricane ×6, Flood, Severe Storm, Severe Ice Storm |
| 2020s | 7 | Hurricane ×4, Tropical Storm ×2, Winter Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Lancaster County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3632-SC): 46 South Carolina counties designated.
- Hurricane Helene (2024, EM-3619-SC): 46 South Carolina counties designated.
- Hurricane Debby (2024, EM-3606-SC): 46 South Carolina counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Helene (2024), Hurricane Debby (2024), Hurricane Idalia (2023), Hurricane Ian (2022), Hurricane Dorian (2019), Hurricane Florence (2018), Hurricane Irma (2017), Hurricane Matthew (2016), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Tropical Storm Frances (2004), Hurricane Hugo (1989).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. South Carolina also had 2 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 11
| Tornadoes touching the county | 11 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×1 |
| Peak month | March (3) |
| Deadliest | 28 Mar 1984, F4, 4 mi path, 0 killed, 36 injured |
| Longest path | 5 May 2020, EF2, 14 mi path |
| Most recent | 5 May 2020, EF2, 14 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 37 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Lancaster County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lancaster County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 79.4 | Ice storm |
| Union County, NC | 37 km | Relatively Moderate | 89.1 | Ice storm |
| Kershaw County | 40 km | Relatively Low | 66.7 | Strong wind |
| Chester County | 42 km | Relatively Low | 43.2 | Ice storm |
| Fairfield County | 50 km | Very Low | 40.8 | Ice storm |
| Chesterfield County | 50 km | Relatively Low | 74.0 | Hurricane |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in South Carolina, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 42.0 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 52.5 |
| Community risk factor | 1.07 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $40 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Lancaster County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for South Carolina · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Ice storm: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Lancaster County
What natural disasters is Lancaster County, South Carolina most at risk from?
Lancaster County, South Carolina has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 79.4 out of 100, higher than about 79% of US counties, with ice storms, strong winds and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $40 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Lancaster County had?
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Lancaster County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3632-SC (Severe Winter Storm, declared 23 January 2026). Another 2 South Carolina declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Lancaster County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 11 tornadoes touching Lancaster County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 28 Mar 1984, F4, 4 mi path, 0 killed, 36 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.