Madison County, Tennessee: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Madison County, Tennessee has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 92.1 out of 100, higher than about 92% of US counties, with earthquakes, tornadoes and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $91 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Madison County since 1975, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4898-TN (Severe Winter Storm, declared 6 February 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 35 tornadoes touching Madison County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Tennessee All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 98,781 Buildings worth $23 billion Area 564 sq mi Risk rank in Tennessee 5 of 95 FIPS 47113
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earthquake | Relatively High | 98.2 | $46 million | about once every 127 years | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 97.2 | $15 million | about once every 2.6 years | 27 |
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 96.8 | $12 million | about 1.9 a year | 36 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 91.6 | $2.7 million | about 15 a year | 248 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 90.2 | $962,378 | about 58 a year | 155,344 strikes |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 88.2 | $1.5 million | about 1.8 a year | 70 |
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 88.1 | $613,947 | about once every 1.5 years | 46 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 80.2 | $12,506 | about once every 1.1 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 72.6 | $11 million | about 2.5 a year | 69 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 62.2 | $204,736 | about once every 28 years | 8 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 55.2 | $166,063 | about 8.2 a year | 252 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 51.9 | $54,319 | about 6.2 a year | 117 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 43.3 | $25,197 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 16.3 | $44,421 | about 3 a year | 113 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 22
Most common: Severe Storm 15, Winter Storm 2, Tornado 2, Severe Ice Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 5 | Severe Storm ×4, Tornado |
| 2000s | 4 | Severe Storm ×3, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 5 | Severe Storm ×4, Severe Ice Storm |
| 2020s | 7 | Severe Storm ×4, Winter Storm ×2, Tornado |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Madison County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, DR-4898-TN): 95 Tennessee counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3635-TN): 95 Tennessee counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (2025, EM-3625-TN): 95 Tennessee counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Tennessee also had 1 statewide declaration with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 35
| Tornadoes touching the county | 35 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×3 |
| Peak month | May (7) |
| Deadliest | 4 May 2003, F4, 39 mi path, 11 killed, 86 injured |
| Longest path | 4 May 2003, F4, 39 mi path, 11 killed, 86 injured |
| Most recent | 20 May 2025, EF0, 1.3 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 21 / 299 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 9 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 6 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Madison County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 92.1 | Earthquake |
| Chester County | 29 km | Relatively Low | 44.5 | Earthquake |
| Crockett County | 36 km | Relatively Low | 52.6 | Earthquake |
| Haywood County | 40 km | Relatively Low | 64.7 | Earthquake |
| Henderson County | 41 km | Relatively Low | 63.1 | Earthquake |
| Gibson County | 44 km | Relatively Moderate | 85.9 | Earthquake |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Tennessee, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 72.9 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 81.5 |
| Community risk factor | 1.32 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $91 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Madison County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Tennessee · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Madison County
What natural disasters is Madison County, Tennessee most at risk from?
Madison County, Tennessee has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 92.1 out of 100, higher than about 92% of US counties, with earthquakes, tornadoes and cold waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $91 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Madison County had?
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Madison County since 1975, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4898-TN (Severe Winter Storm, declared 6 February 2026). Another 1 Tennessee declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Madison County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 35 tornadoes touching Madison County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 4 May 2003, F4, 39 mi path, 11 killed, 86 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.