Caroline County, Virginia: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Caroline County, Virginia has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 20.7 out of 100, higher than about 20% of US counties, with hurricanes, drought and earthquakes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $8.3 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Caroline County since 1969, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm, declared 23 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 15 tornadoes touching Caroline County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Virginia All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 30,855 Buildings worth $5.6 billion Area 542 sq mi Risk rank in Virginia 76 of 133 FIPS 51033
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 79.0 | $1.8 million | about once every 11 years | 26 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 78.2 | $925,849 | about 4.2 a year | 119 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 59.9 | $504,613 | about once every 446 years | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 59.0 | $2,828 | about once every 1.9 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 39.1 | $245,842 | about 4.5 a year | 68 |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 37.4 | $163,026 | about 4 a year | 51,264 strikes |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 30.2 | $580,641 | about once every 2.9 years | 12 |
| Hail | Very Low | 29.0 | $126,143 | about 3.2 a year | 120 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 28.4 | $305,891 | about 4.2 a year | 161 |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 26.8 | $3.5 million | about once every 1.8 years | 16 |
| Coastal flooding | Very Low | 26.2 | $2,712 | about 3.8 a year | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 25.3 | $26,323 | about 6.1 a year | 116 |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 24.9 | $26,047 | about once every 1.5 years | 45 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 19.4 | $8,058 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 6.9 | $41,818 | about once every 1.6 years | 12 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 22
Most common: Hurricane 7, Snowstorm 6, Severe Storm 5, Winter Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Hurricane |
| 1970s | 2 | Drought, Flood |
| 1990s | 5 | Snowstorm ×3, Hurricane, Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 4 | Severe Storm ×2, Hurricane ×2 |
| 2010s | 7 | Hurricane ×3, Snowstorm ×3, Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 3 | Winter Storm, Severe Storm, Severe Ice Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Caroline County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3631-VA): 133 Virginia counties designated.
- Hurricane Florence (2018, EM-3403-VA): 133 Virginia counties designated.
- Hurricane Sandy (2012, EM-3359-VA): 133 Virginia counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Florence (2018), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Tropical Storm Lee (2011), Hurricane Irene (2011), Tropical Depression Ernesto (2006), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Tropical Storm Agnes (1972).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Virginia also had 3 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 15
| Tornadoes touching the county | 15 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×1 |
| Peak month | September (5) |
| Deadliest | 8 Jul 1977, F1, 0.2 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured |
| Longest path | 8 Sep 2004, F1, 17.8 mi path |
| Most recent | 8 Aug 2024, EF1, 1.7 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 3 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Caroline County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline County (this page) | — | Very Low | 20.7 | Hurricane |
| King George County | 32 km | Very Low | 12.8 | Hurricane |
| Hanover County | 32 km | Relatively Low | 53.5 | Drought |
| Spotsylvania County | 32 km | Relatively Low | 52.9 | Lightning |
| Fredericksburg City | 33 km | Very Low | 8.7 | Lightning |
| Essex County | 36 km | Very Low | 18.6 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Virginia, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 25.0 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 43.9 |
| Community risk factor | 0.94 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $8.3 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Caroline County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Virginia · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Hurricane: Is there a hurricane now? · Cyclone preparation
- Drought: Drought monitor for Virginia
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Caroline County
What natural disasters is Caroline County, Virginia most at risk from?
Caroline County, Virginia has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 20.7 out of 100, higher than about 20% of US counties, with hurricanes, drought and earthquakes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $8.3 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Caroline County had?
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Caroline County since 1969, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm, declared 23 January 2026). Another 3 Virginia declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Caroline County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 15 tornadoes touching Caroline County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 8 Jul 1977, F1, 0.2 mi path, 0 killed, 1 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.