Carbon County, Wyoming: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Carbon County, Wyoming has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 42.7 out of 100, higher than about 42% of US counties, with avalanches, lightning and landslides scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $12 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 3 federal disaster declarations that included Carbon County since 2011, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5375-WY (Mullen Fire, declared 26 September 2020). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 18 tornadoes touching Carbon County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 14,494 Buildings worth $4.3 billion Area 8,044 sq mi Risk rank in Wyoming 10 of 23 FIPS 56007
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche | Relatively High | 92.1 | $1.8 million | about once every 7.5 years | 4 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 89.8 | $1.1 million | about 44 a year | 235,286 strikes |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 89.7 | $50,629 | about 3.3 a year | — |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 81.9 | $456,652 | about once every 633 years | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 71.9 | $130,016 | about 25 a year | 465 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 70.1 | $2.0 million | about 3.6 a year | 69 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 60.7 | $430,415 | about once every 412 years | — |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 53.2 | $90,054 | about once every 66 years | 1 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 50.3 | $6.2 million | about once every 3.5 years | 8 |
| Drought | Very Low | 20.5 | $4,141 | about 87 a year | 2,765 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 9.6 | $63,110 | about once every 4.4 years | 9 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 8.6 | $47,050 | about once every 2.7 years | 7 |
| Hail | Very Low | 5.1 | $11,190 | about once every 4.3 years | 8.8 |
| Heat wave | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 3
Most common: Fire 2, Severe Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 2010s | 1 | Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 2 | Fire ×2 |
The last 3
Widest declarations that included Carbon County
- Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides (2011, DR-4007-WY): 15 Wyoming counties designated.
- Mullen Fire (2020, FM-5375-WY): 2 Wyoming counties designated.
- 316 Fire (2020, FM-5347-WY): 1 Wyoming counties designated.
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Wyoming also had 1 statewide declaration with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 18
| Tornadoes touching the county | 18 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×1 |
| Peak month | June (10) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 15 Jun 1966, F1, 7.7 mi path |
| Most recent | 17 May 2021, unrated, 0.3 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Carbon County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carbon County (this page) | — | Very Low | 42.7 | Avalanche |
| Albany County | 100 km | Relatively Low | 48.5 | Winter weather |
| Jackson County, CO | 125 km | Very Low | 11.8 | Avalanche |
| Routt County, CO | 135 km | Very Low | 33.4 | Landslide |
| Natrona County | 141 km | Relatively Low | 68.9 | Winter weather |
| Moffat County, CO | 161 km | Very Low | 12.1 | Landslide |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Wyoming, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 47.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 25.6 |
| Community risk factor | 1.13 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $12 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Carbon County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Wyoming · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Avalanche: Official warnings now
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Wyoming
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Carbon County
What natural disasters is Carbon County, Wyoming most at risk from?
Carbon County, Wyoming has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 42.7 out of 100, higher than about 42% of US counties, with avalanches, lightning and landslides scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $12 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Carbon County had?
OpenFEMA lists 3 federal disaster declarations that included Carbon County since 2011, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5375-WY (Mullen Fire, declared 26 September 2020). Another 1 Wyoming declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Carbon County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 18 tornadoes touching Carbon County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.