Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 93.0 out of 100, higher than about 93% of US counties, with avalanches, earthquakes and landslides scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $121 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 18 federal disaster declarations that included Kenai Peninsula Borough since 1986, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4661-AK (Landslide, declared 26 July 2022). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching Kenai Peninsula Borough from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Alaska All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 58,731 Buildings worth $21 billion Area 24,970 sq mi Risk rank in Alaska 3 of 30 FIPS 02122
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche | Very High | 99.7 | $9.9 million | about once a year | 31 |
| Earthquake | Relatively High | 98.7 | $87 million | about once every 5.3 years | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 97.2 | $284,734 | about 133 a year | — |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 97.1 | $7.0 million | about once every 369 years | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 93.9 | $535,481 | about 9.2 a year | 118 |
| Volcanic activity | Relatively Low | 89.9 | $12,607 | about once every 29 years | 21 |
| Tsunami | Relatively Moderate | 81.5 | $10 million | about once every 3.3 years | 67 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 43.8 | $5.0 million | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Very Low | 33.8 | $6,909 | about once every 83 years | — |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 25.0 | $21,428 | about once every 67 years | 0 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 14.9 | $46,693 | about 6.8 a year | 36,189 strikes |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 14.2 | $128,821 | about 1.1 a year | 14 |
| Drought | Very Low | 12.3 | — | about once every 2.5 years | 35 |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.7 | $3,986 | about once every 167 years | 0.3 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.8 | $3 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 0 |
| Strong wind | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Heat wave | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 18
Most common: Severe Storm 7, Fire 3, Flood 3, Earthquake 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1980s | 2 | Freezing, Flood |
| 1990s | 1 | Flood |
| 2000s | 6 | Severe Storm ×4, Fire ×2 |
| 2010s | 7 | Earthquake ×2, Severe Storm ×2, Coastal Storm, Fire, Flood |
| 2020s | 2 | Mud/Landslide, Severe Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Kenai Peninsula Borough
- Severe Winter Storms and Avalanches (2000, DR-1316-AK): 15 Alaska counties designated.
- Severe Freezing (1989, DR-826-AK): 11 Alaska counties designated.
- Severe Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides (2012, DR-4094-AK): 6 Alaska counties designated.
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Alaska also had 24 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 0
No tornado in NOAA's Storm Prediction Center record touched Kenai Peninsula Borough between 1950 and 2025. That does not mean one cannot happen.
How Kenai Peninsula Borough compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenai Peninsula Borough (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 93.0 | Avalanche |
| Anchorage Municipality | 164 km | Relatively High | 97.4 | Earthquake |
| Matanuska-Susitna Borough | 251 km | Relatively Moderate | 93.3 | Avalanche |
| Lake and Peninsula Borough | 312 km | Very Low | 6.3 | Volcanic activity |
| Kodiak Island Borough | 314 km | Relatively Low | 65.1 | Landslide |
| Chugach Census Area | 322 km | Very Low | 19.6 | Landslide |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Alaska, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 47.1 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 6.5 |
| Community risk factor | 1.14 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $121 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Kenai Peninsula Borough's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Alaska · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Avalanche: Official warnings now
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Kenai Peninsula Borough
What natural disasters is Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska most at risk from?
Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 93.0 out of 100, higher than about 93% of US counties, with avalanches, earthquakes and landslides scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $121 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Kenai Peninsula Borough had?
OpenFEMA lists 18 federal disaster declarations that included Kenai Peninsula Borough since 1986, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4661-AK (Landslide, declared 26 July 2022). Another 24 Alaska declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Kenai Peninsula Borough?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching Kenai Peninsula Borough from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.