Cochise County, Arizona: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Cochise County, Arizona has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 92.8 out of 100, higher than about 92% of US counties, with wildfires, heat waves and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $91 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 12 federal disaster declarations that included Cochise County since 1970, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5183-AZ (Lizard Fire, declared 11 June 2017). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 18 tornadoes touching Cochise County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 125,169 Buildings worth $27 billion Area 6,279 sq mi Risk rank in Arizona 7 of 15 FIPS 04003
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 99.2 | $19 million | about once every 112 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively High | 99.1 | $22 million | about 2.4 a year | 32 |
| Lightning | Very High | 97.0 | $1.8 million | about 56 a year | 371,504 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 93.8 | $44 million | about 6.2 a year | 174 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 90.0 | $1.2 million | about 76 a year | 3,101 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 78.5 | $1.0 million | about once every 562 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 69.5 | $682,496 | about once every 1.7 years | 23 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 55.1 | $1,363 | about 1.4 a year | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 54.2 | $557 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 34.2 | $13,964 | about once every 35 years | 6 |
| Winter weather | Very Low | 21.3 | $13,401 | about 4.3 a year | 82 |
| Hail | Very Low | 15.4 | $37,093 | about once every 3.8 years | 10 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 10.4 | $49,988 | about once every 6.4 years | 9 |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 5.0 | $11,422 | about once every 137 years | 0.1 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Ice storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 12
Most common: Fire 5, Flood 3, Severe Storm 2, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 2 | Drought, Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 2 | Severe Storm, Flood |
| 2000s | 4 | Fire ×2, Hurricane, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 3 | Fire ×3 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Cochise County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3241-AZ): 15 Arizona counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding (1993, DR-977-AZ): 13 Arizona counties designated.
- Severe Storms & Flooding (1983, DR-691-AZ): 11 Arizona counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Arizona also had 27 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 18
| Tornadoes touching the county | 18 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F1 ×4 |
| Peak month | July (7) |
| Deadliest | 23 Sep 2019, EF1, 1.7 mi path, 0 killed, 5 injured |
| Longest path | 23 Sep 2019, EF1, 1.7 mi path, 0 killed, 5 injured |
| Most recent | 21 Aug 2024, unrated, 0.3 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 7 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Cochise County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cochise County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 92.8 | Wildfire |
| Hidalgo County, NM | 98 km | Very Low | 8.9 | Drought |
| Santa Cruz County | 111 km | Relatively Moderate | 88.3 | Heat wave |
| Graham County | 118 km | Relatively Low | 64.6 | Heat wave |
| Greenlee County | 156 km | Very Low | 12.4 | Wildfire |
| Grant County, NM | 160 km | Relatively Low | 74.1 | Wildfire |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Arizona, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 76.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 5.2 |
| Community risk factor | 1.47 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $91 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Cochise County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Arizona · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Arizona
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Cochise County
What natural disasters is Cochise County, Arizona most at risk from?
Cochise County, Arizona has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 92.8 out of 100, higher than about 92% of US counties, with wildfires, heat waves and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $91 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Cochise County had?
OpenFEMA lists 12 federal disaster declarations that included Cochise County since 1970, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5183-AZ (Lizard Fire, declared 11 June 2017). Another 27 Arizona declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Cochise County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 18 tornadoes touching Cochise County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 23 Sep 2019, EF1, 1.7 mi path, 0 killed, 5 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.