Santa Cruz County, Arizona: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Santa Cruz County, Arizona has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 88.3 out of 100, higher than about 88% of US counties, with heat waves, wildfires and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $42 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 6 federal disaster declarations that included Santa Cruz County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3241-AZ (Hurricane Katrina Evacuation, declared 12 September 2005). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 1 tornado touching Santa Cruz County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 47,632 Buildings worth $7.8 billion Area 1,250 sq mi Risk rank in Arizona 10 of 15 FIPS 04023
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heat wave | Relatively High | 99.0 | $16 million | about 4 a year | 47 |
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 98.1 | $7.9 million | about once every 78 years | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 88.4 | $631,420 | about 57 a year | 86,878 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 87.4 | $18 million | about 2.8 a year | 77 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 69.1 | $3,145 | about 1.1 a year | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 54.5 | $116,938 | about 56 a year | 1,505 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 43.5 | $109,827 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 31.0 | $67 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 28.8 | $162,573 | about once every 1.1 years | 35 |
| Winter weather | Very Low | 18.9 | $9,512 | about 3.7 a year | 70 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 17.3 | $2,740 | about once every 19 years | 6 |
| Hail | Very Low | 9.9 | $18,339 | about once every 2.7 years | 14 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 8.7 | $29,688 | about once every 26 years | 1 |
| Cold wave | No Rating | 0.0 | — | — | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Ice storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 6
Most common: Flood 3, Hurricane 1, Fire 1, Severe Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 1 | Flood |
| 2000s | 3 | Hurricane, Fire, Severe Storm |
The last 6
Widest declarations that included Santa Cruz County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3241-AZ): 15 Arizona counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding (1993, DR-977-AZ): 13 Arizona counties designated.
- Severe Storms & Flooding (1983, DR-691-AZ): 11 Arizona counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Arizona also had 27 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 1
| Tornadoes touching the county | 1 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F0 ×1 |
| Peak month | May (1) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 9 May 2012, EF0, 0.3 mi path |
| Most recent | 9 May 2012, EF0, 0.3 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Santa Cruz County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 88.3 | Heat wave |
| Pima County | 110 km | Relatively High | 99.1 | Heat wave |
| Cochise County | 111 km | Relatively Moderate | 92.8 | Wildfire |
| Pinal County | 160 km | Relatively Moderate | 93.8 | Heat wave |
| Graham County | 181 km | Relatively Low | 64.6 | Heat wave |
| Hidalgo County, NM | 206 km | Very Low | 8.9 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Arizona, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 92.3 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 2.3 |
| Community risk factor | 1.80 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $42 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Santa Cruz County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Arizona · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Arizona
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Santa Cruz County
What natural disasters is Santa Cruz County, Arizona most at risk from?
Santa Cruz County, Arizona has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 88.3 out of 100, higher than about 88% of US counties, with heat waves, wildfires and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $42 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Santa Cruz County had?
OpenFEMA lists 6 federal disaster declarations that included Santa Cruz County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3241-AZ (Hurricane Katrina Evacuation, declared 12 September 2005). Another 27 Arizona declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Santa Cruz County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 1 tornado touching Santa Cruz County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.