Pinal County, Arizona: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Pinal County, Arizona has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 93.8 out of 100, higher than about 93% of US counties, with heat waves, wildfires and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $137 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 21 federal disaster declarations that included Pinal County since 1966, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5585-AZ (Cody Fire, declared 22 May 2025). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 30 tornadoes touching Pinal County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Arizona All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 424,095 Buildings worth $69 billion Area 5,429 sq mi Risk rank in Arizona 5 of 15 FIPS 04021
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heat wave | Relatively High | 98.9 | $24 million | about 13 a year | 119 |
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 98.0 | $12 million | about once every 441 years | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 97.0 | $2.4 million | about 42 a year | 496,111 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 96.4 | $92 million | about 3.9 a year | 109 |
| Drought | Relatively High | 95.7 | $2.7 million | about 55 a year | 2,877 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 82.3 | $953,772 | about once every 2.6 years | 15 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 79.8 | $1.5 million | about once every 369 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 75.3 | $1.1 million | about 1.8 a year | 68 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 50.8 | $1,328 | about 1.1 a year | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 37.1 | $712,380 | about once every 2.6 years | 12 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 26.2 | $69 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 18.8 | $5,069 | about once every 93 years | 0 |
| Winter weather | Very Low | 15.6 | $12,048 | about 1.4 a year | 27 |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 3.4 | $1,364 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Ice storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 21
Most common: Fire 10, Flood 6, Severe Storm 3, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Flood |
| 1970s | 3 | Flood ×2, Drought |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 2000s | 7 | Severe Storm ×3, Fire ×3, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 2 | Fire ×2 |
| 2020s | 5 | Fire ×5 |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Pinal County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3241-AZ): 15 Arizona counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding (1993, DR-977-AZ): 13 Arizona counties designated.
- Severe Storms & Flooding (1983, DR-691-AZ): 11 Arizona counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Arizona also had 27 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 30
| Tornadoes touching the county | 30 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F1 ×14 |
| Peak month | June (5) |
| Deadliest | 21 Jun 1972, F1, 1 mi path, 0 killed, 8 injured |
| Longest path | 1 Sep 1971, F1, 32.4 mi path |
| Most recent | 7 Mar 2024, unrated, 0.3 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 13 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Pinal County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinal County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 93.8 | Heat wave |
| Pima County | 99 km | Relatively High | 99.1 | Heat wave |
| Gila County | 111 km | Relatively Moderate | 90.2 | Wildfire |
| Maricopa County | 118 km | Very High | 99.9 | Heat wave |
| Graham County | 136 km | Relatively Low | 64.6 | Heat wave |
| Santa Cruz County | 160 km | Relatively Moderate | 88.3 | Heat wave |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Arizona, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 43.7 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 13.9 |
| Community risk factor | 1.10 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $137 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Pinal County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Arizona · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Arizona
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Pinal County
What natural disasters is Pinal County, Arizona most at risk from?
Pinal County, Arizona has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 93.8 out of 100, higher than about 93% of US counties, with heat waves, wildfires and lightning scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $137 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Pinal County had?
OpenFEMA lists 21 federal disaster declarations that included Pinal County since 1966, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5585-AZ (Cody Fire, declared 22 May 2025). Another 27 Arizona declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Pinal County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 30 tornadoes touching Pinal County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 21 Jun 1972, F1, 1 mi path, 0 killed, 8 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.