Ashley County, Arkansas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Ashley County, Arkansas has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 53.9 out of 100, higher than about 53% of US counties, with ice storms, earthquakes and drought scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $12 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 13 federal disaster declarations that included Ashley County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3636-AR (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 39 tornadoes touching Ashley County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Arkansas All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 19,013 Buildings worth $4.7 billion Area 950 sq mi Risk rank in Arkansas 38 of 75 FIPS 05003
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 86.2 | $433,861 | about 1.1 a year | 73 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 83.3 | $1.5 million | about once every 346 years | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 80.9 | $650,834 | about 18 a year | 686 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 78.7 | $929,476 | about 19 a year | 294 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 72.6 | $1.8 million | about once every 1.4 years | 37 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 69.7 | $361,649 | about 3.3 a year | 125 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 65.1 | $235,430 | about once every 24 years | 12 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 54.0 | $4.9 million | about 1.8 a year | 50 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 50.0 | $362,851 | about 2.9 a year | 111 |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 38.4 | $99,335 | about 64 a year | 99,258 strikes |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 38.3 | $408,787 | about 1.1 a year | 20 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 32.1 | $10,758 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 17.4 | $55 | about once every 4.9 years | — |
| Winter weather | Very Low | 15.5 | $8,377 | about 3.1 a year | 59 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 13
Most common: Severe Storm 3, Hurricane 3, Tornado 3, Flood 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 2 | Tornado, Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Tornado |
| 1990s | 2 | Snowstorm, Flood |
| 2000s | 4 | Hurricane ×2, Tornado, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 1 | Severe Storm |
| 2020s | 3 | Winter Storm, Severe Storm, Hurricane |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Ashley County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3636-AR): 75 Arkansas counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (2025, EM-3627-AR): 75 Arkansas counties designated.
- Hurricane Laura (2020, EM-3541-AR): 75 Arkansas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Laura (2020), Hurricane Gustav (2008), Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Arkansas also had 6 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 39
| Tornadoes touching the county | 39 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×1 |
| Peak month | April (19) |
| Deadliest | 17 Feb 1976, F2, 29.5 mi path, 3 killed, 46 injured |
| Longest path | 2 Jan 2023, EF2, 42.8 mi path |
| Most recent | 21 Jun 2024, unrated |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 3 / 75 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 9 | 15 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 7 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Ashley County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 53.9 | Ice storm |
| Morehouse Parish, LA | 41 km | Relatively Low | 55.3 | Ice storm |
| Drew County | 45 km | Very Low | 35.1 | Earthquake |
| Chicot County | 45 km | Relatively Low | 43.8 | Drought |
| Bradley County | 48 km | Very Low | 30.8 | Ice storm |
| West Carroll Parish, LA | 53 km | Very Low | 15.4 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Arkansas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 87.5 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 18.2 |
| Community risk factor | 1.58 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $12 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Ashley County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Arkansas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Ice storm: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Drought: Drought monitor for Arkansas
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Ashley County
What natural disasters is Ashley County, Arkansas most at risk from?
Ashley County, Arkansas has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 53.9 out of 100, higher than about 53% of US counties, with ice storms, earthquakes and drought scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $12 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Ashley County had?
OpenFEMA lists 13 federal disaster declarations that included Ashley County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3636-AR (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). Another 6 Arkansas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Ashley County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 39 tornadoes touching Ashley County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 17 Feb 1976, F2, 29.5 mi path, 3 killed, 46 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.