Carroll County, Arkansas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Carroll County, Arkansas has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 64.6 out of 100, higher than about 64% of US counties, with ice storms, landslides and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $16 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 19 federal disaster declarations that included Carroll County since 1969, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3636-AR (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 16 tornadoes touching Carroll County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Arkansas All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 28,225 Buildings worth $7.2 billion Area 645 sq mi Risk rank in Arkansas 30 of 75 FIPS 05015
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ice storm | Very High | 97.7 | $1.8 million | about 2 a year | 132 |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 88.5 | $32,718 | about 1.3 a year | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 80.1 | $2.7 million | about once every 2.1 years | 15 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 76.6 | $120,450 | about 11 a year | 213 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 75.5 | $765,565 | about 5.5 a year | 209 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 75.3 | $409,538 | about 58 a year | 92,948 strikes |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 75.0 | $1.8 million | about 1.8 a year | 34 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 70.2 | $538,071 | about once every 452 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 68.9 | $588,002 | about 9.1 a year | 147 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 65.1 | $7.3 million | about 1.1 a year | 31 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 64.9 | $81,216 | about once every 613 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 58.2 | $241,359 | about 7 a year | 268 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 50.4 | $51,136 | about once every 78 years | 4 |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | about 11 a year | 399 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 19
Most common: Severe Storm 11, Flood 3, Hurricane 2, Winter Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Flood |
| 1970s | 2 | Drought, Flood |
| 1990s | 1 | Flood |
| 2000s | 7 | Severe Storm ×5, Severe Ice Storm, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 4 | Severe Storm ×4 |
| 2020s | 4 | Severe Storm ×2, Winter Storm, Hurricane |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Carroll County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3636-AR): 75 Arkansas counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (2025, EM-3627-AR): 75 Arkansas counties designated.
- Hurricane Laura (2020, EM-3541-AR): 75 Arkansas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Laura (2020), Tropical Storm Ike (2008), Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Arkansas also had 6 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 16
| Tornadoes touching the county | 16 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×4 |
| Peak month | April (5) |
| Deadliest | 12 Mar 1961, F2, 1 mi path, 0 killed, 14 injured |
| Longest path | 10 Apr 2008, EF1, 10.7 mi path |
| Most recent | 19 May 2025, EF1, 7.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 16 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Carroll County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carroll County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 64.6 | Ice storm |
| Boone County | 40 km | Relatively Low | 62.3 | Ice storm |
| Madison County | 40 km | Relatively Low | 45.1 | Ice storm |
| Stone County, MO | 46 km | Relatively Low | 76.7 | Strong wind |
| Barry County, MO | 49 km | Relatively Low | 75.1 | Ice storm |
| Newton County | 55 km | Very Low | 18.4 | Lightning |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Arkansas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 84.3 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 15.0 |
| Community risk factor | 1.54 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $16 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Carroll County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Arkansas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Ice storm: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Carroll County
What natural disasters is Carroll County, Arkansas most at risk from?
Carroll County, Arkansas has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 64.6 out of 100, higher than about 64% of US counties, with ice storms, landslides and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $16 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Carroll County had?
OpenFEMA lists 19 federal disaster declarations that included Carroll County since 1969, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3636-AR (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). Another 6 Arkansas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Carroll County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 16 tornadoes touching Carroll County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 12 Mar 1961, F2, 1 mi path, 0 killed, 14 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.