Jefferson County, Arkansas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Jefferson County, Arkansas has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 85.2 out of 100, higher than about 85% of US counties, with ice storms, strong winds and earthquakes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $37 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 23 federal disaster declarations that included Jefferson County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3636-AR (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 38 tornadoes touching Jefferson County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Arkansas All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 67,108 Buildings worth $15 billion Area 925 sq mi Risk rank in Arkansas 10 of 75 FIPS 05069
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ice storm | Very High | 97.4 | $1.6 million | about 1.4 a year | 92 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 95.8 | $2.2 million | about 2.8 a year | 107 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 95.6 | $11 million | about once every 250 years | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 92.5 | $5.9 million | about once every 1.6 years | 30 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 91.4 | $2.3 million | about 19 a year | 316 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 86.4 | $651,536 | about 6 a year | 234,511 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 78.2 | $12 million | about 2.4 a year | 66 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 78.2 | $125,392 | about 4.1 a year | 78 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 77.1 | $497,713 | about 4.3 a year | 164 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 65.3 | $236,403 | about once every 30 years | 16 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 62.9 | $223,553 | about 8.1 a year | 294 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 57.6 | $48,245 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 46.7 | $736 | about once every 3.8 years | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 42.8 | $482,502 | about once every 1.2 years | 16 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 23
Most common: Severe Storm 9, Flood 7, Winter Storm 2, Hurricane 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 3 | Flood ×3 |
| 1990s | 4 | Severe Storm ×2, Flood ×2 |
| 2000s | 5 | Severe Storm ×2, Severe Ice Storm ×2, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 6 | Severe Storm ×4, Flood ×2 |
| 2020s | 5 | Winter Storm ×2, Severe Storm, Hurricane, Tornado |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Jefferson County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3636-AR): 75 Arkansas counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (2025, EM-3627-AR): 75 Arkansas counties designated.
- Hurricane Laura (2020, EM-3541-AR): 75 Arkansas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Laura (2020), Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Arkansas also had 6 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 38
| Tornadoes touching the county | 38 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×2 |
| Peak month | January (6) |
| Deadliest | 21 Apr 1955, F2, 0.5 mi path, 1 killed, 2 injured |
| Longest path | 7 Jan 1978, F1, 35 mi path |
| Most recent | 14 Mar 2025, EF1, 0.9 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 1 / 24 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 15 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Jefferson County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 85.2 | Ice storm |
| Lincoln County | 39 km | Very Low | 29.8 | Drought |
| Grant County | 45 km | Very Low | 15.7 | Ice storm |
| Cleveland County | 47 km | Very Low | 9.5 | Ice storm |
| Arkansas County | 51 km | Relatively Low | 63.2 | Earthquake |
| Lonoke County | 54 km | Relatively Low | 75.1 | Ice storm |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Arkansas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 93.7 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 67.1 |
| Community risk factor | 1.58 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $37 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Jefferson County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Arkansas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Ice storm: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Jefferson County
What natural disasters is Jefferson County, Arkansas most at risk from?
Jefferson County, Arkansas has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 85.2 out of 100, higher than about 85% of US counties, with ice storms, strong winds and earthquakes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $37 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Jefferson County had?
OpenFEMA lists 23 federal disaster declarations that included Jefferson County since 1973, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3636-AR (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). Another 6 Arkansas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Jefferson County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 38 tornadoes touching Jefferson County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 21 Apr 1955, F2, 0.5 mi path, 1 killed, 2 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.