Polk County, Arkansas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Polk County, Arkansas has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 46.1 out of 100, higher than about 46% of US counties, with ice storms, wildfires and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $9.8 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Polk County since 1968, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3636-AR (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 34 tornadoes touching Polk County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Arkansas All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 19,179 Buildings worth $5.3 billion Area 870 sq mi Risk rank in Arkansas 50 of 75 FIPS 05113
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 91.9 | $759,083 | about once every 1.1 years | 61 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 82.4 | $355,649 | about once every 263 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 80.4 | $602,863 | about 5.2 a year | 199 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 75.3 | $6,341 | about 1.5 a year | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 68.4 | $574,140 | about 15 a year | 262 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 64.7 | $71,519 | about 5.5 a year | 105 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 63.5 | $1.4 million | about once every 2.0 years | 33 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 58.8 | $214,622 | about 65 a year | 127,032 strikes |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 57.9 | $462,199 | about 3.9 a year | 147 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 55.5 | $246,726 | about once every 625 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 53.4 | $4.9 million | about 1.8 a year | 51 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 45.8 | $33,308 | about once every 138 years | 2 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 28.5 | $258,518 | about 1.1 a year | 21 |
| Drought | No Rating | 0.0 | — | about 21 a year | 616 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 22
Most common: Severe Storm 8, Severe Ice Storm 4, Tornado 3, Flood 3.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Tornado |
| 1970s | 3 | Tornado, Drought, Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Severe Storm |
| 1990s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 2000s | 7 | Severe Ice Storm ×3, Severe Storm ×2, Tornado, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 5 | Severe Storm ×4, Severe Ice Storm |
| 2020s | 3 | Winter Storm, Severe Storm, Hurricane |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Polk County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3636-AR): 75 Arkansas counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (2025, EM-3627-AR): 75 Arkansas counties designated.
- Hurricane Laura (2020, EM-3541-AR): 75 Arkansas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Laura (2020), Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Arkansas also had 6 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 34
| Tornadoes touching the county | 34 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×2 |
| Peak month | April (8) |
| Deadliest | 9 Apr 2009, EF3, 14.8 mi path, 3 killed, 30 injured |
| Longest path | 17 Nov 1952, F2, 39.2 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured |
| Most recent | 4 Nov 2022, EF1, 1.8 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 4 / 45 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 9 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Polk County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polk County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 46.1 | Ice storm |
| Scott County | 44 km | Very Low | 26.8 | Ice storm |
| Howard County | 49 km | Relatively Low | 48.5 | Ice storm |
| Montgomery County | 52 km | Very Low | 30.7 | Ice storm |
| Sevier County | 54 km | Relatively Low | 64.9 | Ice storm |
| Le Flore County, OK | 63 km | Relatively Moderate | 82.7 | Ice storm |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Arkansas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 84.0 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 11.6 |
| Community risk factor | 1.55 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $9.8 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Polk County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Arkansas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Ice storm: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Hail: Weather alerts for Arkansas
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Polk County
What natural disasters is Polk County, Arkansas most at risk from?
Polk County, Arkansas has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 46.1 out of 100, higher than about 46% of US counties, with ice storms, wildfires and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $9.8 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Polk County had?
OpenFEMA lists 22 federal disaster declarations that included Polk County since 1968, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3636-AR (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). Another 6 Arkansas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Polk County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 34 tornadoes touching Polk County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 9 Apr 2009, EF3, 14.8 mi path, 3 killed, 30 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.