Sebastian County, Arkansas: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Sebastian County, Arkansas has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 86.8 out of 100, higher than about 86% of US counties, with ice storms, heat waves and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $58 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 19 federal disaster declarations that included Sebastian County since 1968, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3636-AR (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 38 tornadoes touching Sebastian County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Arkansas All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 127,706 Buildings worth $28 billion Area 550 sq mi Risk rank in Arkansas 7 of 75 FIPS 05131
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ice storm | Very High | 99.3 | $3.8 million | about 1.3 a year | 89 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 96.4 | $7.5 million | about 25 a year | 294 |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 94.2 | $9.8 million | about once every 2.6 years | 35 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 93.2 | $1.4 million | about 61 a year | 256,747 strikes |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 91.9 | $425,356 | about 6.4 a year | 121 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 90.4 | $1.3 million | about once every 170 years | — |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 86.5 | $5.0 million | about once every 1.3 years | 15 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 86.1 | $25 million | about 3.2 a year | 90 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 85.1 | $2.6 million | about once every 513 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 65.6 | $427,085 | about 5.8 a year | 220 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 58.2 | $2,203 | about once every 4.0 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 56.0 | $598,166 | about 4.4 a year | 167 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 49.4 | $64,468 | about once every 133 years | 2 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 38.4 | $53,082 | about 17 a year | 539 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 19
Most common: Severe Storm 5, Flood 4, Severe Ice Storm 4, Hurricane 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 2 | Tornado ×2 |
| 1970s | 2 | Drought, Flood |
| 1990s | 2 | Severe Storm, Flood |
| 2000s | 5 | Severe Ice Storm ×3, Severe Storm, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 5 | Flood ×2, Severe Storm ×2, Severe Ice Storm |
| 2020s | 3 | Winter Storm, Severe Storm, Hurricane |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Sebastian County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3636-AR): 75 Arkansas counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (2025, EM-3627-AR): 75 Arkansas counties designated.
- Hurricane Laura (2020, EM-3541-AR): 75 Arkansas counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Laura (2020), Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Arkansas also had 6 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 38
| Tornadoes touching the county | 38 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×1 |
| Peak month | May (11) |
| Deadliest | 19 Apr 1968, F4, 2 mi path, 14 killed, 270 injured |
| Longest path | 18 May 2019, EF1, 7.3 mi path |
| Most recent | 6 Jun 2025, EF0, 1.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 14 / 294 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 12 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 6 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Sebastian County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 86.8 | Ice storm |
| Scott County | 42 km | Very Low | 26.8 | Ice storm |
| Crawford County | 43 km | Relatively Low | 71.6 | Ice storm |
| Franklin County | 49 km | Relatively Low | 49.4 | Ice storm |
| Logan County | 51 km | Relatively Low | 48.2 | Ice storm |
| Le Flore County, OK | 51 km | Relatively Moderate | 82.7 | Ice storm |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Arkansas, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 48.9 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 38.8 |
| Community risk factor | 1.13 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $58 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Sebastian County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Arkansas · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Ice storm: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Sebastian County
What natural disasters is Sebastian County, Arkansas most at risk from?
Sebastian County, Arkansas has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 86.8 out of 100, higher than about 86% of US counties, with ice storms, heat waves and tornadoes scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $58 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Sebastian County had?
OpenFEMA lists 19 federal disaster declarations that included Sebastian County since 1968, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3636-AR (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). Another 6 Arkansas declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Sebastian County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 38 tornadoes touching Sebastian County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 19 Apr 1968, F4, 2 mi path, 14 killed, 270 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.