Modoc County, California: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Modoc County, California has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 39.7 out of 100, higher than about 39% of US counties, with drought, wildfires and volcanic activity scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $9.8 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 15 federal disaster declarations that included Modoc County since 1964, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4699-CA (Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared 3 April 2023). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching Modoc County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for California All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 8,672 Buildings worth $3.3 billion Area 4,246 sq mi Risk rank in California 56 of 58 FIPS 06049
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively High | 96.5 | $2.7 million | about 98 a year | 2,800 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 92.9 | $1.8 million | about once every 187 years | — |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 81.4 | $821 | about once every 417 years | 4 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 68.8 | $582,676 | about once every 66 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 44.8 | $4.5 million | about once every 2.2 years | 13 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 34.6 | $28,865 | about 17 a year | 314 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 33.3 | $314 | about once every 1.2 years | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 30.6 | $89 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 29.8 | $105,940 | about 3.3 a year | 46 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 9.9 | $26,426 | about 15 a year | 44,775 strikes |
| Cold wave | Very Low | 9.7 | $56,203 | about once every 11 years | 1.7 |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.6 | $5,826 | about once every 22 years | 1.7 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 1.5 | $4,213 | about once every 32 years | 2 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 1.1 | $572 | about once every 53 years | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Ice storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 15
Most common: Flood 7, Severe Storm 5, Fire 1, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 2 | Flood ×2 |
| 1970s | 2 | Drought, Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 4 | Severe Storm ×3, Flood |
| 2000s | 1 | Hurricane |
| 2010s | 4 | Flood ×2, Severe Storm, Fire |
| 2020s | 1 | Severe Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Modoc County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3248-CA): 58 California counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms, Flooding Landslides, Mud Flow (1995, DR-1046-CA): 57 California counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Flooding, Mud and Landslides (1997, DR-1155-CA): 48 California counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. California also had 30 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 0
No tornado in NOAA's Storm Prediction Center record touched Modoc County between 1950 and 2025. That does not mean one cannot happen.
How Modoc County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modoc County (this page) | — | Very Low | 39.7 | Drought |
| Lassen County | 102 km | Relatively Low | 73.1 | Wildfire |
| Washoe County, NV | 133 km | Relatively High | 96.7 | Earthquake |
| Lake County, OR | 137 km | Very Low | 19.1 | Wildfire |
| Shasta County | 143 km | Relatively Moderate | 93.4 | Wildfire |
| Klamath County, OR | 144 km | Relatively Low | 77.9 | Earthquake |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in California, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 66.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 21.8 |
| Community risk factor | 1.31 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $9.8 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Modoc County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for California · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Drought: Drought monitor for California
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Volcanic activity: US volcano alerts
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Modoc County
What natural disasters is Modoc County, California most at risk from?
Modoc County, California has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 39.7 out of 100, higher than about 39% of US counties, with drought, wildfires and volcanic activity scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $9.8 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Modoc County had?
OpenFEMA lists 15 federal disaster declarations that included Modoc County since 1964, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4699-CA (Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared 3 April 2023). Another 30 California declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Modoc County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has no tornado on record touching Modoc County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.