Baca County, Colorado: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Baca County, Colorado has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 23.2 out of 100, higher than about 23% of US counties, with drought, wildfires and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $4.7 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 9 federal disaster declarations that included Baca County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4731-CO (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes, declared 25 August 2023). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 86 tornadoes touching Baca County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 3,490 Buildings worth $935 million Area 2,583 sq mi Risk rank in Colorado 41 of 64 FIPS 08009
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively High | 96.9 | $2.2 million | about 138 a year | 3,780 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 80.8 | $254,707 | about once every 292 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 71.1 | $344,809 | about 4.3 a year | 162 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 64.8 | $489,387 | about 1.7 a year | 64 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 58.5 | $185,443 | about 46 a year | 49,294 strikes |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 50.7 | $38,421 | about 8.5 a year | 161 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 37.8 | $355,690 | about 1.7 a year | 33 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 26.5 | $235,386 | about 1.3 a year | 60 |
| Ice storm | Very Low | 24.5 | $13,603 | about once every 12 years | 6 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 19.3 | $15,791 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 6.4 | $545,956 | about once every 2.8 years | 10 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 5.6 | $5 | about once every 3.4 years | — |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 3.9 | $2,253 | about once every 9.5 years | 2 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 9
Most common: Flood 3, Snowstorm 1, Coastal Storm 1, Fire 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Tornado |
| 1970s | 1 | Drought |
| 1990s | 1 | Flood |
| 2000s | 4 | Snowstorm, Coastal Storm, Fire, Severe Storm |
| 2010s | 1 | Flood |
| 2020s | 1 | Flood |
The last 9
Widest declarations that included Baca County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3224-CO): 64 Colorado counties designated.
- Wildfires (2002, DR-1421-CO): 58 Colorado counties designated.
- Drought (1977, EM-3025-CO): 42 Colorado counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Colorado also had 12 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 86
| Tornadoes touching the county | 86 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F2 ×4 |
| Peak month | June (44) |
| Deadliest | 10 Jun 1967, F2, 14.2 mi path, 0 killed, 4 injured |
| Longest path | 17 May 1962, F1, 23 mi path |
| Most recent | 13 Jul 2023, EF0, 0.3 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 4 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 59 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 15 | 5 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Baca County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baca County (this page) | — | Very Low | 23.2 | Drought |
| Cimarron County, OK | 64 km | Relatively Low | 47.3 | Drought |
| Morton County, KS | 69 km | Very Low | 4.7 | Drought |
| Prowers County | 72 km | Relatively Low | 48.6 | Drought |
| Stanton County, KS | 74 km | Very Low | 9.6 | Drought |
| Bent County | 84 km | Very Low | 5.6 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Colorado, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 95.8 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very Low 11.4 |
| Community risk factor | 1.78 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $4.7 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Baca County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Colorado · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Drought: Drought monitor for Colorado
- Wildfire: US wildfires now · Wildfire smoke: what protects you
- Hail: Weather alerts for Colorado
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Baca County
What natural disasters is Baca County, Colorado most at risk from?
Baca County, Colorado has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 23.2 out of 100, higher than about 23% of US counties, with drought, wildfires and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $4.7 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Baca County had?
OpenFEMA lists 9 federal disaster declarations that included Baca County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4731-CO (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes, declared 25 August 2023). Another 12 Colorado declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Baca County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 86 tornadoes touching Baca County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 10 Jun 1967, F2, 14.2 mi path, 0 killed, 4 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.