Mesa County, Colorado: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Mesa County, Colorado has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 75.1 out of 100, higher than about 75% of US counties, with landslides, lightning and avalanches scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $35 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 6 federal disaster declarations that included Mesa County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5335-CO (Pine Gulch Fire, declared 19 August 2020). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 10 tornadoes touching Mesa County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 155,647 Buildings worth $31 billion Area 3,375 sq mi Risk rank in Colorado 13 of 64 FIPS 08077
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landslide | Relatively High | 99.4 | $2.2 million | about 3 a year | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 97.3 | $2.7 million | about 52 a year | 240,399 strikes |
| Avalanche | Relatively High | 90.1 | $1.7 million | about once every 6.0 years | 5 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 89.9 | $1.4 million | about once every 606 years | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 84.7 | $2.8 million | about once every 725 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 81.9 | $22 million | about 2.6 a year | 72 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 73.9 | $656,081 | about 92 a year | 2,632 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 68.2 | $123,364 | about 25 a year | 477 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 59.3 | $568,136 | about once every 3.0 years | 4.8 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 33.2 | $38,992 | about once every 67 years | 0 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 30.9 | $444,960 | about once every 51 years | 0.4 |
| Hail | Very Low | 21.2 | $77,668 | about once every 7.3 years | 5.2 |
| Volcanic activity | Very Low | 18.6 | — | rarer than once in 1,000 years | 1 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 17.7 | $199,142 | about once every 9.7 years | 10 |
| Strong wind | Very Low | 10.8 | $80,865 | about once every 3.5 years | 11 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 6
Most common: Fire 3, Coastal Storm 1, Flood 1, Drought 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Drought |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 2000s | 3 | Fire ×2, Coastal Storm |
| 2020s | 1 | Fire |
The last 6
Widest declarations that included Mesa County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3224-CO): 64 Colorado counties designated.
- Wildfires (2002, DR-1421-CO): 58 Colorado counties designated.
- Drought (1977, EM-3025-CO): 42 Colorado counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Colorado also had 12 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 10
| Tornadoes touching the county | 10 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F1 ×2 |
| Peak month | April (2) |
| Deadliest | — |
| Longest path | 17 Oct 2004, F0, 7.5 mi path |
| Most recent | 9 Jul 2015, EF1, 0.1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 0 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Mesa County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mesa County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 75.1 | Landslide |
| Delta County | 55 km | Relatively Low | 51.3 | Landslide |
| Montrose County | 71 km | Relatively Low | 49.0 | Lightning |
| Garfield County | 81 km | Relatively Low | 64.5 | Landslide |
| Grand County, UT | 95 km | Very Low | 10.3 | Lightning |
| Rio Blanco County | 109 km | Very Low | 37.6 | Landslide |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Colorado, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 37.0 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 56.7 |
| Community risk factor | 1.03 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $35 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Mesa County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Colorado · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Colorado
- Avalanche: Official warnings now
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Mesa County
What natural disasters is Mesa County, Colorado most at risk from?
Mesa County, Colorado has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 75.1 out of 100, higher than about 75% of US counties, with landslides, lightning and avalanches scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $35 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Mesa County had?
OpenFEMA lists 6 federal disaster declarations that included Mesa County since 1977, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5335-CO (Pine Gulch Fire, declared 19 August 2020). Another 12 Colorado declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Mesa County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 10 tornadoes touching Mesa County from 1950 to 2025.
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.