South Central Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut: Natural Disaster Risk and History
South Central Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 95.1 out of 100, higher than about 95% of US counties, with hurricanes, inland (river and flash) flooding and ice storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $174 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 34 federal disaster declarations that included South Central Connecticut Planning Region since 1978, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5542-CT (Hawthorne Fire, declared 24 October 2024). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 7 tornadoes touching South Central Connecticut Planning Region from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Connecticut All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 570,229 Buildings worth $117 billion Area 626 sq mi Risk rank in Connecticut 3 of 9 FIPS 09170
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 97.0 | $37 million | about once every 5.8 years | 58 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively High | 96.9 | $108 million | about 3.3 a year | 91 |
| Ice storm | Very High | 96.6 | $2.0 million | about 2 a year | 84 |
| Coastal flooding | Relatively High | 93.8 | $9.2 million | about 5 a year | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 92.3 | $1.3 million | about 26 a year | 195,560 strikes |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 91.5 | $6.6 million | about once every 680 years | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 91.3 | $433,729 | about 13 a year | 149 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 85.4 | $2.0 million | about 5 a year | 49 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 84.9 | $1.5 million | about 3.4 a year | 83 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 78.0 | $3.5 million | about once every 5.7 years | 0 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 69.2 | $2.0 million | about once every 1.1 years | 11 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 69.2 | $5,246 | about once every 6.2 years | — |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 41.2 | $27,506 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 37.1 | $154,999 | about 2.3 a year | 90 |
| Drought | Very Low | 23.8 | $9,328 | about once every 1.1 years | 105 |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 34
Most common: Hurricane 11, Severe Storm 9, Snowstorm 8, Flood 3.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Snowstorm |
| 1980s | 4 | Flood ×2, Tornado, Hurricane |
| 1990s | 4 | Snowstorm ×2, Flood, Hurricane |
| 2000s | 6 | Snowstorm ×4, Severe Storm, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 12 | Severe Storm ×6, Hurricane ×4, Tornado, Snowstorm |
| 2020s | 7 | Hurricane ×4, Severe Storm ×2, Fire |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included South Central Connecticut Planning Region
- Hurricane Henri (2021, EM-3564-CT): 9 Connecticut counties designated.
- Tropical Storm Isaias (2021, DR-4580-CT): 9 Connecticut counties designated.
- Tropical Storm Isaias (2020, EM-3535-CT): 9 Connecticut counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Ida (2021), Hurricane Henri (2021), Tropical Storm Isaias (2021), Tropical Storm Isaias (2020), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Tropical Storm Irene (2011), Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Bob (1991), Hurricane Gloria (1985).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Connecticut also had 2 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 7
| Tornadoes touching the county | 7 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×1 |
| Peak month | August (3) |
| Deadliest | 10 Jul 1989, F4, 3 mi path, 0 killed, 40 injured |
| Longest path | 27 Aug 2020, EF1, 11.1 mi path |
| Most recent | 13 Nov 2021, EF0, 1.9 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 40 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How South Central Connecticut Planning Region compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Central Connecticut Planning Region (this page) | — | Relatively High | 95.1 | Hurricane |
| Naugatuck Valley Planning Region | 27 km | Relatively Moderate | 93.2 | Inland flooding |
| Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region | 30 km | Relatively Moderate | 83.8 | Inland flooding |
| Greater Bridgeport Planning Region | 35 km | Relatively Moderate | 91.8 | Strong wind |
| Western Connecticut Planning Region | 50 km | Relatively High | 96.3 | Inland flooding |
| Suffolk County, NY | 54 km | Relatively High | 97.3 | Winter weather |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Connecticut, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 45.2 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 79.7 |
| Community risk factor | 1.08 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $174 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for South Central Connecticut Planning Region's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Connecticut · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Hurricane: Is there a hurricane now? · Cyclone preparation
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Ice storm: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out. Connecticut now uses nine planning regions: older declarations and tornadoes listed by the eight former counties are assigned to every planning region that shares a town with that county, so a region can show events that hit only part of it.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about South Central Connecticut Planning Region
What natural disasters is South Central Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut most at risk from?
South Central Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut has a Relatively High natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 95.1 out of 100, higher than about 95% of US counties, with hurricanes, inland (river and flash) flooding and ice storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $174 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has South Central Connecticut Planning Region had?
OpenFEMA lists 34 federal disaster declarations that included South Central Connecticut Planning Region since 1978, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is FM-5542-CT (Hawthorne Fire, declared 24 October 2024). Another 2 Connecticut declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit South Central Connecticut Planning Region?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 7 tornadoes touching South Central Connecticut Planning Region from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 10 Jul 1989, F4, 3 mi path, 0 killed, 40 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.