Coles County, Illinois: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Coles County, Illinois has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 70.4 out of 100, higher than about 70% of US counties, with drought, earthquakes and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $31 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 7 federal disaster declarations that included Coles County since 1974, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4728-IL (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 15 August 2023). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 39 tornadoes touching Coles County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 46,818 Buildings worth $14 billion Area 515 sq mi Risk rank in Illinois 35 of 102 FIPS 17029
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 89.2 | $1.7 million | about 1.7 a year | 42 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 87.3 | $3.7 million | about once every 287 years | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 79.0 | $210,448 | about 8.4 a year | 159 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 74.9 | $2.8 million | about 2.4 a year | 45 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 74.5 | $17 million | about 1.7 a year | 47 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 72.1 | $2.9 million | about once every 2.3 years | 25 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 70.7 | $1.0 million | about 7.2 a year | 96 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 69.9 | $587,118 | about 2.7 a year | 103 |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 66.6 | $4,608 | about once every 6.6 years | — |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 56.2 | $694,588 | about 4.4 a year | 167 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 44.4 | $70,291 | about once every 1.2 years | 56 |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 44.2 | $202,566 | about 48 a year | 133,758 strikes |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 38.9 | $29,506 | about once every 35 years | 10 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 9.5 | $3,205 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 7
Most common: Severe Storm 2, Tornado 2, Snowstorm 1, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 2000s | 3 | Severe Storm, Hurricane, Tornado |
| 2010s | 1 | Snowstorm |
| 2020s | 2 | Severe Storm, Tornado |
The last 7
Widest declarations that included Coles County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3230-IL): 102 Illinois counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding (2002, DR-1416-IL): 68 Illinois counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm (2011, DR-1960-IL): 65 Illinois counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Illinois also had 2 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 39
| Tornadoes touching the county | 39 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×2 |
| Peak month | April (10) |
| Deadliest | 15 Dec 1971, F1, 11.4 mi path, 0 killed, 24 injured |
| Longest path | 6 May 1960, F2, 20.9 mi path |
| Most recent | 20 May 2025, EF0, 2.9 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 34 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 15 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Coles County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coles County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 70.4 | Drought |
| Cumberland County | 28 km | Very Low | 25.9 | Drought |
| Douglas County | 28 km | Relatively Low | 62.1 | Hail |
| Moultrie County | 37 km | Relatively Low | 45.0 | Drought |
| Clark County | 43 km | Very Low | 27.3 | Earthquake |
| Edgar County | 44 km | Very Low | 34.9 | Drought |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Illinois, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 30.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 74.0 |
| Community risk factor | 0.98 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $31 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Coles County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Illinois · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Drought: Drought monitor for Illinois
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Coles County
What natural disasters is Coles County, Illinois most at risk from?
Coles County, Illinois has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 70.4 out of 100, higher than about 70% of US counties, with drought, earthquakes and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $31 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Coles County had?
OpenFEMA lists 7 federal disaster declarations that included Coles County since 1974, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4728-IL (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 15 August 2023). Another 2 Illinois declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Coles County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 39 tornadoes touching Coles County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 15 Dec 1971, F1, 11.4 mi path, 0 killed, 24 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.