Rock Island County, Illinois: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Rock Island County, Illinois has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 84.1 out of 100, higher than about 84% of US counties, with cold waves, strong winds and heat waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $45 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 13 federal disaster declarations that included Rock Island County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4461-IL (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 19 September 2019). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 34 tornadoes touching Rock Island County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 144,591 Buildings worth $17 billion Area 456 sq mi Risk rank in Illinois 19 of 102 FIPS 17161
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 95.7 | $11 million | about 6.3 a year | 119 |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 94.1 | $2.4 million | about 6.2 a year | 236 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Moderate | 93.4 | $4.0 million | about 7.2 a year | 110 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 91.8 | $1.8 million | about 4 a year | 152 |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 91.0 | $6.8 million | about once every 2.4 years | 36 |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 90.3 | $360,111 | about 16 a year | 296 |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 89.5 | $1.0 million | about 44 a year | 213,179 strikes |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 84.0 | $22,695 | about once every 4.0 years | — |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 80.4 | $365,573 | about once every 1.5 years | 46 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 79.5 | $17 million | about 3.1 a year | 86 |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 70.5 | $464,213 | about 8.5 a year | 287 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 62.3 | $451,465 | about once every 877 years | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 13.8 | $2,874 | about once every 138 years | 0 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 8.7 | $2,412 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 13
Most common: Flood 9, Snowstorm 1, Severe Storm 1, Hurricane 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 2 | Flood, Tornado |
| 1970s | 3 | Flood ×3 |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 1 | Flood |
| 2000s | 3 | Severe Storm, Hurricane, Flood |
| 2010s | 3 | Flood ×2, Snowstorm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Rock Island County
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3230-IL): 102 Illinois counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm (2011, DR-1960-IL): 65 Illinois counties designated.
- Severe Storms & Flooding (1973, DR-373-IL): 52 Illinois counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Illinois also had 2 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 34
| Tornadoes touching the county | 34 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×2 |
| Peak month | April (7) |
| Deadliest | 15 Mar 2016, EF2, 4.8 mi path, 0 killed, 10 injured |
| Longest path | 14 Jun 1974, F3, 48.6 mi path, 0 killed, 2 injured |
| Most recent | 3 Jun 2025, EF0, 1.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 0 / 18 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 10 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Rock Island County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rock Island County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 84.1 | Cold wave |
| Scott County, IA | 19 km | Relatively Moderate | 84.9 | Strong wind |
| Mercer County | 33 km | Very Low | 8.8 | Drought |
| Henry County | 38 km | Relatively Low | 57.1 | Strong wind |
| Muscatine County, IA | 45 km | Relatively Low | 57.8 | Hail |
| Clinton County, IA | 48 km | Relatively Low | 64.8 | Strong wind |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Illinois, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 60.2 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Very High 87.2 |
| Community risk factor | 1.20 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $45 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Rock Island County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Illinois · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Heat wave: Heatstroke warning signs
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Rock Island County
What natural disasters is Rock Island County, Illinois most at risk from?
Rock Island County, Illinois has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 84.1 out of 100, higher than about 84% of US counties, with cold waves, strong winds and heat waves scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $45 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Rock Island County had?
OpenFEMA lists 13 federal disaster declarations that included Rock Island County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4461-IL (Severe Storms and Flooding, declared 19 September 2019). Another 2 Illinois declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Rock Island County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 34 tornadoes touching Rock Island County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 15 Mar 2016, EF2, 4.8 mi path, 0 killed, 10 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.