Elkhart County, Indiana: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Elkhart County, Indiana has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 83.7 out of 100, higher than about 83% of US counties, with strong winds, cold waves and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $49 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 11 federal disaster declarations that included Elkhart County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3641-IN (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 34 tornadoes touching Elkhart County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 206,994 Buildings worth $50 billion Area 473 sq mi Risk rank in Indiana 7 of 92 FIPS 18039
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 95.6 | $3.1 million | about 4.9 a year | 187 |
| Cold wave | Relatively High | 94.6 | $10 million | about 3.3 a year | 62 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 93.6 | $2.3 million | about 2.9 a year | 111 |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 90.6 | $7.2 million | about once every 4.3 years | 25 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 84.1 | $23 million | about once every 2.5 years | 11 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 80.1 | $202,080 | about 17 a year | 317 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 77.2 | $1.3 million | about once every 877 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 72.9 | $992,875 | about 4.1 a year | 66 |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 66.3 | $412,717 | about 4 a year | 203,619 strikes |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 61.7 | $139,270 | about 1.3 a year | 86 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 47.1 | $115,428 | about 1.5 a year | 49 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 47.1 | $53,603 | about once every 55 years | 6 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 45.7 | $978 | about once every 12 years | — |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 32.9 | $16,493 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 11
Most common: Snowstorm 4, Flood 2, Severe Storm 2, Winter Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 1 | Tornado |
| 1970s | 1 | Snowstorm |
| 1990s | 2 | Snowstorm, Flood |
| 2000s | 5 | Severe Storm ×2, Snowstorm ×2, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 1 | Flood |
| 2020s | 1 | Winter Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Elkhart County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3641-IN): 92 Indiana counties designated.
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3238-IN): 92 Indiana counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms and Flooding (2005, DR-1573-IN): 87 Indiana counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Indiana also had 3 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 34
| Tornadoes touching the county | 34 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×3 |
| Peak month | June (8) |
| Deadliest | 11 Apr 1965, F4, 37 mi path, 36 killed, 321 injured |
| Longest path | 11 Apr 1965, F4, 37 mi path, 36 killed, 321 injured |
| Most recent | 15 Jul 2024, EF1, 1.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 82 / 751 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 11 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Elkhart County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elkhart County (this page) | — | Relatively Moderate | 83.7 | Strong wind |
| St. Joseph County | 36 km | Relatively Moderate | 85.8 | Cold wave |
| LaGrange County | 36 km | Relatively Low | 62.4 | Strong wind |
| Cass County, MI | 37 km | Relatively Low | 47.7 | Strong wind |
| Kosciusko County | 39 km | Relatively Low | 66.3 | Strong wind |
| Noble County | 43 km | Relatively Low | 44.2 | Strong wind |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Indiana, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Moderate 45.3 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 61.1 |
| Community risk factor | 1.09 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $49 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Elkhart County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Indiana · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Cold wave: Carbon monoxide in winter · Power outages now
- Hail: Weather alerts for Indiana
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Elkhart County
What natural disasters is Elkhart County, Indiana most at risk from?
Elkhart County, Indiana has a Relatively Moderate natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 83.7 out of 100, higher than about 83% of US counties, with strong winds, cold waves and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $49 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Elkhart County had?
OpenFEMA lists 11 federal disaster declarations that included Elkhart County since 1965, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3641-IN (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). Another 3 Indiana declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Elkhart County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 34 tornadoes touching Elkhart County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 11 Apr 1965, F4, 37 mi path, 36 killed, 321 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.