Shelby County, Indiana: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Shelby County, Indiana has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 43.4 out of 100, higher than about 43% of US counties, with tornadoes, earthquakes and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $16 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 13 federal disaster declarations that included Shelby County since 1974, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3651-IN (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 15 August 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 34 tornadoes touching Shelby County from 1950 to 2025.
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Population 45,055 Buildings worth $11 billion Area 417 sq mi Risk rank in Indiana 44 of 92 FIPS 18145
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 78.8 | $4.4 million | about once every 3.2 years | 30 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 72.6 | $1.1 million | about once every 452 years | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 61.3 | $467,256 | about 4.2 a year | 158 |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 60.1 | $331,577 | about 2.1 a year | 56 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 52.5 | $8.4 million | about 1.4 a year | 39 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 51.2 | $106,185 | about once every 1.5 years | 46 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 50.9 | $77,706 | about 9.2 a year | 174 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 42.3 | $916 | about once every 12 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 40.4 | $277,563 | about 4.6 a year | 66 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 38.6 | $470,238 | about 4.3 a year | 166 |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 30.5 | $130,524 | about 49 a year | 95,046 strikes |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 30.2 | $496,595 | about 2.6 a year | 50 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 13.0 | $3,577 | about once every 174 years | 2 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 4.7 | $1,742 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 13
Most common: Severe Storm 5, Flood 3, Snowstorm 2, Winter Storm 1.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Tornado |
| 1990s | 3 | Flood ×2, Snowstorm |
| 2000s | 7 | Severe Storm ×5, Hurricane, Snowstorm |
| 2020s | 2 | Flood, Winter Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Shelby County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3641-IN): 92 Indiana counties designated.
- Hurricane Katrina Evacuation (2005, EM-3238-IN): 92 Indiana counties designated.
- Severe Winter Storms and Flooding (2005, DR-1573-IN): 87 Indiana counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Indiana also had 3 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 34
| Tornadoes touching the county | 34 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×6 |
| Peak month | June (7) |
| Deadliest | 3 Apr 1974, F3, 20.7 mi path, 1 killed, 25 injured |
| Longest path | 10 Mar 1986, F3, 35 mi path, 0 killed, 22 injured |
| Most recent | 7 May 2024, EF0, 0.8 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 3 / 71 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 6 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Shelby County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelby County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 43.4 | Tornado |
| Johnson County | 27 km | Relatively Low | 74.7 | Strong wind |
| Rush County | 30 km | Very Low | 15.8 | Tornado |
| Hancock County | 33 km | Relatively Low | 44.0 | Tornado |
| Decatur County | 35 km | Very Low | 23.1 | Lightning |
| Bartholomew County | 36 km | Relatively Low | 70.9 | Tornado |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Indiana, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very Low 19.7 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 78.5 |
| Community risk factor | 0.88 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $16 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Shelby County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Indiana · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Tornado: Is there a tornado warning now?
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Hail: Weather alerts for Indiana
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Shelby County
What natural disasters is Shelby County, Indiana most at risk from?
Shelby County, Indiana has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 43.4 out of 100, higher than about 43% of US counties, with tornadoes, earthquakes and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $16 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Shelby County had?
OpenFEMA lists 13 federal disaster declarations that included Shelby County since 1974, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3651-IN (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared 15 August 2026). Another 3 Indiana declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Shelby County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 34 tornadoes touching Shelby County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 3 Apr 1974, F3, 20.7 mi path, 1 killed, 25 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.