Caldwell County, Kentucky: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Caldwell County, Kentucky has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 39.0 out of 100, higher than about 39% of US counties, with ice storms, earthquakes and drought scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $9.3 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 25 federal disaster declarations that included Caldwell County since 1989, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 17 tornadoes touching Caldwell County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Kentucky All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 12,649 Buildings worth $2.8 billion Area 352 sq mi Risk rank in Kentucky 66 of 120 FIPS 21033
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ice storm | Relatively High | 89.3 | $664,759 | about 1.6 a year | 106 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 86.0 | $2.4 million | about once every 147 years | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 71.8 | $449,862 | about 6.4 a year | 182 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 63.6 | $623,492 | about 4.4 a year | 166 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 61.2 | $1.4 million | about once every 3.4 years | 18 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 52.1 | $319,647 | about 8.8 a year | 122 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 47.4 | $45,261 | about 7.1 a year | 135 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 42.4 | $149,943 | about 2.9 a year | 109 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 36.6 | $441,653 | about once every 1.1 years | 18 |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 32.6 | $92,025 | about 55 a year | 43,744 strikes |
| Inland flooding | Very Low | 30.6 | $2.8 million | about once a year | 29 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 27.7 | $194 | about once every 1.9 years | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 22.7 | $5,815 | about once every 174 years | 1 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 5.8 | $1,428 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 25
Most common: Severe Storm 13, Flood 3, Snowstorm 3, Tornado 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 2 | Severe Storm, Snowstorm |
| 2000s | 7 | Severe Storm ×3, Severe Ice Storm ×2, Hurricane, Snowstorm |
| 2010s | 4 | Severe Storm ×2, Flood, Snowstorm |
| 2020s | 11 | Severe Storm ×7, Tornado ×2, Winter Storm, Flood |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Caldwell County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3633-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (2025, EM-3626-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides (2025, EM-3624-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Tropical Depression Ike (2008), Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Kentucky also had 4 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 17
| Tornadoes touching the county | 17 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×1 |
| Peak month | April (6) |
| Deadliest | 3 Apr 1968, F4, 50.6 mi path, 2 killed, 30 injured |
| Longest path | 3 Apr 1968, F4, 50.6 mi path, 2 killed, 30 injured |
| Most recent | 26 May 2024, EF3, 34.1 mi path, 1 killed, 21 injured |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 3 / 64 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 4 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Caldwell County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caldwell County (this page) | — | Very Low | 39.0 | Ice storm |
| Lyon County | 24 km | Very Low | 28.9 | Ice storm |
| Crittenden County | 31 km | Very Low | 30.4 | Ice storm |
| Hopkins County | 34 km | Relatively Low | 72.6 | Ice storm |
| Trigg County | 38 km | Relatively Low | 48.4 | Ice storm |
| Christian County | 44 km | Relatively Low | 79.6 | Earthquake |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Kentucky, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively High 72.6 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Moderate 43.5 |
| Community risk factor | 1.35 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $9.3 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Caldwell County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Kentucky · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Ice storm: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Earthquake: Earthquakes today · Earthquake safety guide
- Drought: Drought monitor for Kentucky
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Caldwell County
What natural disasters is Caldwell County, Kentucky most at risk from?
Caldwell County, Kentucky has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 39.0 out of 100, higher than about 39% of US counties, with ice storms, earthquakes and drought scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $9.3 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Caldwell County had?
OpenFEMA lists 25 federal disaster declarations that included Caldwell County since 1989, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). Another 4 Kentucky declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Caldwell County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 17 tornadoes touching Caldwell County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 3 Apr 1968, F4, 50.6 mi path, 2 killed, 30 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.