Estill County, Kentucky: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Estill County, Kentucky has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 41.8 out of 100, higher than about 41% of US counties, with inland (river and flash) flooding, winter storms and landslides scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $8.9 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 36 federal disaster declarations that included Estill County since 1978, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 8 tornadoes touching Estill County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Kentucky All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 14,163 Buildings worth $2.3 billion Area 258 sq mi Risk rank in Kentucky 52 of 120 FIPS 21065
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 63.9 | $7.0 million | about 2.6 a year | 72 |
| Winter weather | Relatively Low | 59.3 | $60,235 | about 14 a year | 272 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 51.8 | $1,040 | about once every 1.6 years | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 51.8 | $438 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Low | 47.7 | $350,138 | about 5.9 a year | 226 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 44.7 | $23,146 | about once every 909 years | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 42.8 | $122,599 | about 52 a year | 27,064 strikes |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 41.3 | $128,007 | about 3.3 a year | 127 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 40.7 | $461,114 | about once every 1.1 years | 18 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 37.8 | $528,062 | about once every 11 years | 7 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 35.4 | $77,990 | about once every 538 years | — |
| Heat wave | Very Low | 34.7 | $119,212 | about 2.8 a year | 43 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 30.8 | $23,063 | about once every 2.2 years | 31 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 28.1 | $8,313 | about once every 43 years | 6 |
| Drought | Very Low | 17.2 | $1,354 | about 2.8 a year | 70 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 36
Most common: Severe Storm 21, Flood 5, Snowstorm 4, Severe Ice Storm 3.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Flood |
| 1980s | 1 | Severe Storm |
| 1990s | 5 | Snowstorm ×3, Severe Storm ×2 |
| 2000s | 10 | Severe Storm ×7, Severe Ice Storm ×2, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 8 | Severe Storm ×4, Flood ×3, Snowstorm |
| 2020s | 11 | Severe Storm ×7, Winter Storm, Tropical Storm, Flood, Severe Ice Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Estill County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3633-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (2025, EM-3626-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides (2025, EM-3624-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Helene (2024), Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Kentucky also had 4 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 8
| Tornadoes touching the county | 8 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×1 |
| Peak month | June (2) |
| Deadliest | 9 Jun 1961, F3, 2.6 mi path, 1 killed, 63 injured |
| Longest path | 20 Apr 1996, F1, 5 mi path |
| Most recent | 1 Jan 2022, EF1, 1.1 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 1 / 63 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Estill County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estill County (this page) | — | Very Low | 41.8 | Inland flooding |
| Powell County | 20 km | Very Low | 31.2 | Strong wind |
| Lee County | 24 km | Very Low | 7.5 | Landslide |
| Madison County | 28 km | Relatively Low | 74.8 | Lightning |
| Jackson County | 31 km | Very Low | 24.2 | Landslide |
| Clark County | 35 km | Very Low | 38.3 | Strong wind |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Kentucky, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 84.3 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 23.0 |
| Community risk factor | 1.53 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $8.9 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Estill County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Kentucky · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Inland flooding: Flood safety: why shallow water kills · Floods recorded
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Estill County
What natural disasters is Estill County, Kentucky most at risk from?
Estill County, Kentucky has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 41.8 out of 100, higher than about 41% of US counties, with inland (river and flash) flooding, winter storms and landslides scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $8.9 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Estill County had?
OpenFEMA lists 36 federal disaster declarations that included Estill County since 1978, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm, declared 24 January 2026). Another 4 Kentucky declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Estill County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 8 tornadoes touching Estill County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 9 Jun 1961, F3, 2.6 mi path, 1 killed, 63 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.