Madison County, Kentucky: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Madison County, Kentucky has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 74.8 out of 100, higher than about 74% of US counties, with lightning, strong winds and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $37 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 26 federal disaster declarations that included Madison County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4937-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared 1 September 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 19 tornadoes touching Madison County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Kentucky All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 92,690 Buildings worth $19 billion Area 448 sq mi Risk rank in Kentucky 15 of 120 FIPS 21151
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Relatively High | 94.3 | $1.8 million | about 52 a year | 110,814 strikes |
| Strong wind | Relatively High | 88.6 | $2.0 million | about 6.4 a year | 244 |
| Winter weather | Relatively High | 85.9 | $318,133 | about 11 a year | 207 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 85.3 | $5.8 million | about once every 5.1 years | 17 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Moderate | 83.7 | $5.0 million | about 1.1 a year | 20 |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 82.7 | $1.1 million | about 3.3 a year | 127 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 76.8 | $1.4 million | about once every 476 years | — |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Moderate | 76.0 | $18 million | about 1.9 a year | 54 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Moderate | 72.9 | $277,498 | about once every 1.3 years | 53 |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 61.1 | $657,944 | about 2.5 a year | 39 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 52.0 | $56,892 | rarer than once in 1,000 years | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 50.6 | $83,060 | about once every 36 years | 6 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 48.4 | $1,339 | about once every 1.3 years | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 25.3 | $69 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 20.7 | $5,097 | about 2.8 a year | 70 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 26
Most common: Severe Storm 12, Flood 5, Severe Ice Storm 3, Snowstorm 3.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 3 | Flood ×2, Tornado |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 4 | Snowstorm ×3, Severe Storm |
| 2000s | 6 | Severe Storm ×3, Severe Ice Storm ×2, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 4 | Severe Storm ×3, Flood |
| 2020s | 8 | Severe Storm ×5, Winter Storm, Flood, Severe Ice Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Madison County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3633-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (2025, EM-3626-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides (2025, EM-3624-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Kentucky also had 4 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 19
| Tornadoes touching the county | 19 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F4 ×1 |
| Peak month | April (9) |
| Deadliest | 3 Apr 1974, F4, 31.9 mi path, 7 killed, 28 injured |
| Longest path | 3 Apr 1974, F4, 31.9 mi path, 7 killed, 28 injured |
| Most recent | 12 Jan 2023, EF1, 1.2 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 9 / 61 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Madison County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison County (this page) | — | Relatively Low | 74.8 | Lightning |
| Garrard County | 25 km | Very Low | 30.2 | Strong wind |
| Estill County | 28 km | Very Low | 41.8 | Inland flooding |
| Clark County | 30 km | Very Low | 38.3 | Strong wind |
| Jessamine County | 32 km | Very Low | 39.8 | Strong wind |
| Fayette County | 39 km | Relatively Moderate | 92.0 | Tornado |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Kentucky, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Relatively Low 28.5 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively High 62.3 |
| Community risk factor | 0.96 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $37 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Madison County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Kentucky · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Lightning: Weather alerts for Kentucky
- Strong wind: Power outages now
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Madison County
What natural disasters is Madison County, Kentucky most at risk from?
Madison County, Kentucky has a Relatively Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 74.8 out of 100, higher than about 74% of US counties, with lightning, strong winds and winter storms scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $37 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Madison County had?
OpenFEMA lists 26 federal disaster declarations that included Madison County since 1972, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4937-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared 1 September 2026). Another 4 Kentucky declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Madison County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 19 tornadoes touching Madison County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 3 Apr 1974, F4, 31.9 mi path, 7 killed, 28 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.