Rockcastle County, Kentucky: Natural Disaster Risk and History
Rockcastle County, Kentucky has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 36.1 out of 100, higher than about 36% of US counties, with landslides, winter storms and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $7.6 million a year in expected losses.
OpenFEMA lists 33 federal disaster declarations that included Rockcastle County since 1974, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4937-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared 1 September 2026). NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 9 tornadoes touching Rockcastle County from 1950 to 2025.
Live weather alerts for Kentucky All official warnings Latest FEMA declarations
Population 16,028 Buildings worth $3.0 billion Area 321 sq mi Risk rank in Kentucky 70 of 120 FIPS 21203
All 18 hazards, highest risk first
FEMA National Risk Index| Hazard | Risk rating | Score | Expected loss a year | How often | Events in record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 85.0 | $19,800 | about once every 1.3 years | — |
| Winter weather | Relatively Moderate | 62.7 | $66,102 | about 13 a year | 252 |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 61.1 | $262,064 | about 3.2 a year | 123 |
| Strong wind | Relatively Moderate | 58.3 | $464,549 | about 6.2 a year | 235 |
| Cold wave | Relatively Low | 54.8 | $755,439 | about once every 1.1 years | 17 |
| Inland flooding | Relatively Low | 53.0 | $4.8 million | about 1.7 a year | 48 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 48.9 | $796,780 | about once every 7.3 years | 7 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 47.5 | $27,514 | about once every 758 years | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 45.3 | $131,520 | about 53 a year | 42,385 strikes |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 40.9 | $107,426 | about once every 469 years | — |
| Heat wave | Relatively Low | 40.1 | $154,755 | about 2.8 a year | 42 |
| Ice storm | Relatively Low | 38.8 | $33,260 | about once every 1.9 years | 35 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 35.5 | $14,554 | about once every 35 years | 8 |
| Drought | Very Low | 22.8 | $5,114 | about 6.5 a year | 217 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 12.7 | $8 | about once every 100 years | 0 |
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Score: FEMA's percentile among US counties that face the hazard (higher = more risk). Expected loss: FEMA's modelled average yearly loss to buildings, people (as a statistical value) and crops. How often: FEMA's annualised frequency of the hazard in the county; for some hazards it counts event-days, so it is a rough guide, not a forecast. "Not Applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard here.
Federal disaster declarations 33
Most common: Severe Storm 15, Flood 4, Snowstorm 4, Winter Storm 2.
| Decade | Declarations | Incident types |
|---|---|---|
| 1970s | 1 | Tornado |
| 1980s | 1 | Flood |
| 1990s | 6 | Snowstorm ×3, Severe Storm, Tornado, Flood |
| 2000s | 7 | Severe Storm ×3, Fire ×2, Severe Ice Storm, Hurricane |
| 2010s | 5 | Severe Storm ×3, Flood, Snowstorm |
| 2020s | 13 | Severe Storm ×8, Winter Storm ×2, Tropical Storm, Flood, Severe Ice Storm |
The last 10
Widest declarations that included Rockcastle County
- Severe Winter Storm (2026, EM-3633-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (2025, EM-3626-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
- Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides (2025, EM-3624-KY): 120 Kentucky counties designated.
Named storms in its declarations: Hurricane Helene (2024), Hurricane Katrina (2005).
Not counted above: 2 COVID-19 ("Biological") declarations — in 2020 every US county was included. Kentucky also had 4 statewide declarations with no county list.
Tornado record since 1950 9
| Tornadoes touching the county | 9 |
|---|---|
| Strongest-rated | (E)F3 ×2 |
| Peak month | April (5) |
| Deadliest | 3 Apr 1974, F3, 22.3 mi path, 7 killed, 40 injured |
| Longest path | 3 Apr 1974, F3, 28.8 mi path |
| Most recent | 6 Feb 2025, EF1, 0.7 mi path |
| Deaths / injuries on those paths | 7 / 40 |
| Rating | (E)F0 | (E)F1 | (E)F2 | (E)F3 | (E)F4 | (E)F5 | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Decade | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Deaths and injuries are for each tornado's whole path, which can run beyond this county. F-scale ratings before February 2007, Enhanced Fujita (EF) after.
How Rockcastle County compares with its 5 nearest counties
| County | Distance | Overall risk | Score | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockcastle County (this page) | — | Very Low | 36.1 | Landslide |
| Jackson County | 28 km | Very Low | 24.2 | Landslide |
| Lincoln County | 32 km | Very Low | 32.6 | Strong wind |
| Laurel County | 33 km | Relatively Low | 71.7 | Winter weather |
| Garrard County | 36 km | Very Low | 30.2 | Strong wind |
| Pulaski County | 37 km | Relatively Low | 79.1 | Winter weather |
Nearest by distance between county centres. Every county in Kentucky, ranked.
Vulnerability and resilience
| Social vulnerability | Very High 87.1 |
|---|---|
| Community resilience | Relatively Low 25.5 |
| Community risk factor | 1.56 |
| Expected annual loss, all hazards | $7.6 million |
FEMA scales expected losses up where social vulnerability is high (people who may find it harder to prepare, evacuate or recover) and down where community resilience is high. A factor above 1 raises the risk score. For social vulnerability a high rating is worse; for resilience a high rating is better.
Prepare for Rockcastle County's main hazards
- Right now: National Weather Service alerts for Kentucky · all official warnings on Global Incident Tracker.
- Landslide: Landslides recorded
- Winter weather: Power outages now · Carbon monoxide in winter
- Hail: Weather alerts for Kentucky
- Your property's flood zone: FEMA Flood Map Service Center ↗ — this page cannot tell you that.
- Official preparedness guidance: Ready.gov ↗ and your county emergency management office.
What this page shows, and what it misses
FEMA's National Risk Index rates a whole county against every other US county; it is a planning-level estimate for nationwide comparison, not a flood-zone map and not a substitute for a local risk assessment or the risk to one home. Declarations are presidential disaster, emergency and fire management declarations that named this county; state declarations and SBA or USDA designations are not included. Tornadoes are counted when the county is one of up to four listed on the track; 670 tornadoes that crossed a state line carry no county list in NOAA's file and are left out.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Risk Index Dataset: National Risk Index Counties - v1.20.0 (December 2025). Retrieved from https://services.arcgis.com/XG15cJAlne2vxtgt/ArcGIS/rest/services/National_Risk_Index_Counties/FeatureServer/0/query on November 2, 2026, 1:20 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index dataset API or downloadable datasets but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), OpenFEMA Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2, retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries on November 2, 2026, 1:21 PM EST. This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Tornado records: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Database, tornadoes 1950–2025 (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/1950-2025_actual_tornadoes.csv, downloaded 2 November 2026). Public domain; not endorsed by NOAA. Compiled by Global Incident Tracker.
Questions about Rockcastle County
What natural disasters is Rockcastle County, Kentucky most at risk from?
Rockcastle County, Kentucky has a Very Low natural-hazard risk rating in FEMA's National Risk Index (v1.20, December 2025): a score of 36.1 out of 100, higher than about 36% of US counties, with landslides, winter storms and hail scoring highest of its 18 hazards and $7.6 million a year in expected losses.
How many federal disaster declarations has Rockcastle County had?
OpenFEMA lists 33 federal disaster declarations that included Rockcastle County since 1974, not counting 2 for COVID-19; the latest is DR-4937-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared 1 September 2026). Another 4 Kentucky declarations were made statewide without a county list.
How many tornadoes have hit Rockcastle County?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 9 tornadoes touching Rockcastle County from 1950 to 2025. The deadliest: 3 Apr 1974, F3, 22.3 mi path, 7 killed, 40 injured (deaths and injuries are for the whole path).
Is the National Risk Index a flood zone map?
No. The National Risk Index is a planning-level estimate for a whole county, built for nationwide comparison. It does not tell you the flood zone or the risk of a single property: for that, look up the address on FEMA's Flood Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) and ask your local floodplain manager.